09.Dec .2022 11:00

Electricity Transit 3 Folds Up This Year

Electricity Transit 3 Folds Up This Year
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In 10M22, export of electricity stood at US$ 84.3mn, while import cost was only US$ 40.7mn, resulting in positive trade balance of US$ 43.6mn. On the one hand, energy crisis and global price growth of energy products impacted our key export destination Turkey – where prices tripled. On the other hand, prices on local market increased much less than that of export.

Increased prices on Turkish market also caused jump (2.9x times) in transit volume to 2.1TWh in 10M21. A 96.1% of transit was directed to Turkey, out of which 83.5%ppts came from Azerbaijan and 12.6%ppts from Russia. The rest 3.9% of transit went from Russia to Armenia in 10M22. Notably, there was no transit of electricity between Aug-20 and Jun-21, due to low energy prices on Turkish market. Once prices went up in Turkey (in 2H21), transit started again.

As for the imports, imports accounted to 9.5% of total demand. In 10M22, 78.8% of total imports came from Russia (mostly for Abkhazian region), 10.3% from Azerbaijan and 11.0% from Armenia. Abkhazian region consumed half of total electricity imported to Georgia. This electricity is received at “special” price (less than USc 0.5/kWh), decreasing the average import price to USc 3.2/kWh. Commercial price of electricity imports varies by importer country in 10M22:

* Price of electricity imports from Azerbaijan stood at US$ 7.5/kWh, up by 62.0% y/y in 10M22
* Price of electricity imports from Armenia stood at US$ 7.4/kWh
* Price of electricity imports from Russia in October stood at USc 7.0/kWh, up by 42.3% y/y from USc 4.9/kWh in Oct-21. Importantly, in October there was no import of electricity for Abkhazian region, therefore this is pure commercial price of electricity imports from Russia.

Trade balance of electricity was positive - Georgia earned US$ 84.3mn via electricity exports and spent US$ 40.7mn on electricity imports, resulting in US$ 43.6mn of net export. Increased export revenues are attributable to incredibly increased prices in key export destination – Turkey, while import costs increased less significantly.

Despite the positive trade balance in US$ terms, Georgia remains net importer in kWh terms. Georgia imported 1.3TWh electricity and exported 1.0TWh in 10M22, resulting in 0.3TWh net import. The trade deficit in kWh terms is expected to widen as forecasted balance of electricity adopted by Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development predicts electricity imports to reach 2.3TWh by end of 2022.