The economy and actions by banks, including the central banks and the governments, can have clear and immediate results on the exchange rate of the currency, but in a long run, the action of the currency is decided by the market forces. Here below, I will provide a forecast for the exchange rate of GEL towards USD for the remaining days of April 2021.
Once we have a fractal outline of the security which shows timing and to some extent prices, then we can start looking at more precise price predictions. For that, we have another set of tools - MAGIC. Magic is a tool that predicts prices each and every day. It also has the ability to predict the price probabilities over a weekly or monthly period.
The main reasons impacting the markets are not always known. Sometimes they can be inferred backward but market forces, it is believed know and took into account all the forces that are driving the USD/GEL prices. That is the role of the market "TO KNOW".
If some insist and would like to get an explanation of why the USD/GEL may be somewhat stable for the rest of the year, I would say that the answer is in the Dollar, which projects the trading range for the coming months.
The same is the case for EUR/GEL. The relative stability of exchange rates, worldwide and late but good economic recovery in Georgia (especially tourism business) is likely to provide stability for Georgian lari.
In addition to the reasons why the lari may have relative stability is connected with crude oil. Crude oil 130% run-up last year was a drain on Georgia's foreign reserves.
While crude oil can go higher yet after mid-years, the severity of that rise is not expected to be nearly that much as it was before. Therefore, another reason Georgian lari may experience some stability.
The highest price of GEL towards USD is expected for late April - 3.55, while the lowest rate for the current month has already been fixed at 3.40.
More details of the GEL/USD exchange rate for April 2021 can be read from the graph.
The graph and information are given as is and do not constitute advice to buy or sell anything. This is a fractal prediction and cannot be used by those, who do not understand how to use it and is given here for educational purposes only.