20.Feb .2020 17:17

FocusEconomics: business sentiment may weaken, however, in the run-up to parliamentary elections later in the year


FocusEconomics published economic analysis based on the forecasts from the world’s leading economists. The report included Georgia’s economic outlook.

According to the report, available data indicates that growth lost some pace in the final quarter of 2019, after it picked up to an over one-year high in the previous quarter on a buoyant wholesale and retail trade sector.

Economic activity eased sharply in December, expanding at the softest pace in 11 months amid a decline in construction output, which brought average growth in Q4 well below that of Q3. In addition, although remittance inflows quickened in Q4—with those from Italy, Greece and the U.S. more than offsetting a sharp decline from Russia—increased price pressures amid a depreciating currency likely took a toll on household consumption. On a brighter note, stronger growth in merchandise exports in Q4 might have lent support to overall activity.

Although growth is seen losing stride this year, it should remain solid, buttressed in large part by sturdy household spending. Business sentiment and thus investment may weaken, however, in the run-up to parliamentary elections later in the year. A still-large current account deficit and the sizeable stock of foreign-currency denominated debt also dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.5% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points last month’s forecast, and 4.5% again in 2021.

To note, FocusEconomics is a leading provider of economic analysis and forecasts for 130 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas, as well as price forecasts for 34 key commodities. The company is supported by an extensive global network of analysts.