Investment bank Galt & Taggart predicts 7% economic growth in Georgia in 2022, - Eva Bochorishvili, the head of the research department at Galt &Taggart told TV-Program "Business Morning". According to her, the current economic parameters create a realistic basis for the Georgian economy to grow by 7% late this year.
TBC Capital also adjusted its economic growth forecast, which expects 7.5% growth in the country this year. The forecast was also improved by the World Bank, which raised it again to 5.5% instead of the previously predicted 2.5%. It should be noted that the Georgian government expects 6% growth in the country.
According to Eva Bochorishvili, the results of May and June are of critical importance in determining the economic growth forecast for 2022.
"The economic growth rates of May and June are especially important, because they completely change the rates of the year. The increase in the second quarter that will be made is crucial. The 2.6% increase in April is a pretty good increase, given that there was a 45% increase in April last year. There will be a high base effect in May as well, although according to preliminary data, a rather high economic growth should be expected in May as well. It turns out that in the first half of the year we will have quite high growth. 10.8%, which has been observed in the last 4 months, is also a pretty good figure; If we look at the growth, which is mainly due to increase of transport, shipments, passenger traffic at airports, of course, this will have a positive impact on the transport sector.
There are also positive trends in the field of tourism, restaurants, cafes and other facilities, as well as positive trends in the real estate sector, where demand is growing. In April, there has been a decline in construction and trade, which was affected by rising prices. We also have a decline in the manufacturing industry.
As for the economic growth, we think that the annual growth will be more than 7%, however the inflation factor is to be taken into account. Such economic growth is not merely observed in Georgia, but also in Armenia. Migrants have also impact on the economic growth in Armenia. For example, in April we received USD 132 million in remittances from Russia, while Armenia received twice as much - USD 230 million. Therefore, whatever trends we see in remittances, we are no exception and it operates in other countries as well,” said Eva Bochorishvili.
