Galt&Taggart published weekly market watch.
Tourist arrivals recovered to 55.4% of 2019 level in Feb-22
Tourist arrivals (overnight stays) recovered to 55.4% of Feb-19 level, up from 53.5% recovery in Jan-22. Meanwhile, same-day arrivals, accounting for c.30% of total international arrivals pre-COVID, remained weak, accounting for 10.4% of Feb-19 level. That said, 151.9 thousand international visitors (up 274.8% y/y, tourists and same-day arrivals combined) traveled to Georgia in Feb-22, with most visitors from Turkey (19.5% of total), followed by Russia (13.7% of total), and Armenia (11.4% of total). Notably, arrivals from Israel, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Saudi Arabia and Uzbekistan surpassed Feb-19 levels. Most visitors traveled to Georgia via land (51.7% of total), followed by air (47.6% of total).
"Overall, in 2M22 tourist arrivals stood at 0.3mn persons (+360.8% y/y, 54.3% of 2M19 level) and tourism revenues reached US$ 219.2mn (+813.2% y/y, 65.7% of 2M19 level). We expect 2022 tourism revenues to recover to 60-75% of 2019 level, revised down from our initial forecast of 85% recovery vs 2019", - the report reads.
FDI at US$ 411.3mn in 4Q21
FDI increased by 35.4% q/q to US$ 411.3mn in 4Q21, after decreasing by 0.5% q/q in 3Q21, according to Geostat’s preliminary figures. The 4Q21 FDI figure reflected reinvestments (US$ 146.4mn, 35.6% of total FDI) and debt instruments (US$ 177.1mn, 43.0% of total FDI). The financial sector was the largest FDI recipient at US$ 119.1mn (+21.0% y/y, 29.0% of total), followed by real estate at US$ 42.6mn (+280.2% y/y, 10.4% of total), transport and communications at US$ 19.5mn (+20.5% y/y, 4.7% of total) and manufacturing at US$ 11.8mn (2.9% of total). UK topped the list of investors with US$ 325.2mn (79.1% of total FDI), followed by USA at US$ 36.0mn (8.8% of total) and Netherlands at US$ 21.9mn (5.3% of total). Overall, FDI was up by 101.6% y/y to US$ 1.2bn (6.2% of GDP) in 2021.
International reserves at US$ 4.0bn in February 2022
Gross international reserves decreased by 2.0% y/y to US$ 4.0bn in February 2022 according to NBG. On a monthly basis, the reserves were also down by 2.1% (-US$ 85.2mn). There were no FX auctions in February and changes in reserves were attributed to the government and banking sector FX operations, and/or asset revaluation.
NBG sold US$ 39.6mn
On 9 March 2022, NBG intervened in the FX market and sold US$ 39.6mn out of offered US$ 50mn to limit GEL volatility. This was 1st FX intervention in 2022. Notably, in 2021 and 2020, NBG sold US$ 354.9mn and US$ 916.1mn, respectively.
Equities
Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 11.38/share (+5.57% w/w and -27.97% m/m). More than 653k shares traded in the range of GBP 9.60 - 11.84/share. Average daily traded volume was 148k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.33% of its capitalization.
TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 10.24/share (+6.67% w/w and -36.00% m/m). More than 436k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 8.32 - 10.60/share. Average daily traded volume was 68k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.79% of its capitalization.
Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 5.35/share (+16.30% w/w and -21.44% m/m). More than 392k shares traded in the range of GBP 4.30 - 5.44/share. Average daily traded volume was 183k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.84% of its capitalization.
