18.Jul .2022 15:00

Galt&Taggart Published Weekly Market Watch

Galt&Taggart Published Weekly Market Watch
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Galt&Taggart published Weekly Market Watch. According to the document, exports increased by 25.1% y/y to US$ 438.6mn in June 2022. In June-22, exports growth came in at 25.1% y/y to US$ 438.6mn, after a 53.7% y/y growth in previous month. Imports increased by 21.2% y/y to US$ 1.0bn in June, after growing 47.3% y/y in previous month. As a result, the trade deficit increased by 18.6% y/y to US$ 608.7mn, after a 42.3% y/y growth in May. Overall, in 1H22, trade deficit was up 35.4% y/y to US$ 3.4bn, as exports increased by 35.1% y/y to US$ 2.5bn, while imports were up by 35.3% y/y to US$ 5.9bn.

Money transfers increased by 111.7% y/y in June 2022. Money transfers continued to grow strongly, with flows up by 111.7% y/y to US$ 427.4mn in Jun-22, according to NBG, after a 169.4% y/y growth in previous month. From major remitting countries, money transfers increased from Russia (+5.9x y/y accounting for 54.2% of total, part of this funds related to migration) followed by Italy (+12.2% y/y, 8.3% of total), USA (+10.7% y/y, 6.5% of total), Kazakhstan (+283.9% y/y, 4.0% of total), Israel (+8.3% y/y, 4.0% of total) and Germany (+43.8% y/y, 3.3% of total). Meanwhile, transfers declined from Greece (-6.9% y/y, 4.4% of total) and Turkey (-7.1% y/y, 2.0% of total). Overall, in 1H22 remittances increased by 65.0% y/y to US$ 1.8bn.

Tourism revenues: In June 2022, tourism revenues recovered at 88.7% of Jun-19 level amounting to US$ 301.7mn (+146.3% y/y), according to the NBG. Overall, tourism revenues reached US$ 1,143mn in 1H22 (+281.3% y/y, 78.5% of 1H19 level). We expect tourism revenues to recover at 85% of 2019 level in a baseline scenario, however considering strong May-June figure and migrant impact, full recovery is also likely.

Money market
Ministry of Finance T-Bills:
1-year GEL 30.0mn (US$ 10.4mn) T-Bills were sold at the auction held at NBG on July 12, 2022. Total demand was 2.5x higher and the weighted average yield was fixed at 10.082%, down by 0.308ppts from previous auction held in Jun-22. The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for July 19, 2022, where GEL 25.0mn nominal value 10-year Benchmark bonds will be sold.

Fixed income
Corporate Eurobonds: Bank of Georgia Group Eurobonds (GEBGG) closed at 6.67% yield, trading at 99.38 (-0.54% w/w). Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 94.57 (-0.82% w/w), yielding 9.78%. Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at 84.37 (-0.47% w/w), yielding 7.30%.
Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 82.35 (-1.10% w/w) at 8.31% yield to maturity.

Equities

Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 14.38/share (+3.30% w/w and -4.39% m/m). More than 320k shares traded in the range of
GBP 13.50 - 14.40/share. Average daily traded volume was 68k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 0.65% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 11.82/share (-4.06% w/w and -14.60% m/m). More than 137k shares changed hands in the range of
GBP 11.38 - 12.40/share. Average daily traded volume was 29k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.25% of its capitalization.

Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 6.09/share (+4.28% w/w and +2.70% m/m). More than 112k shares traded in the range of GBP 5.78
- 6.15/share. Average daily traded volume was 35k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.24% of its capitalization.