19.Dec .2022 16:00

Galt&Taggrat Published Weekly Market Watch

Galt&Taggrat Published Weekly Market Watch
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Galt&Taggart published Weekly Market Watch:

Exports accelerated in Nov-22

In Nov-22, exports increased by 14.1% y/y to US$ 491.1mn, after a 9.2% y/y growth in previous month. Imports growth was 20.8% y/y reaching US$ 1.2bn in November, after growing by 21.0% y/y in October. As a result, the trade deficit, increased by 25.7% y/y to US$ 757.7mn, after a 30.1% y/y growth in October. Overall, in 11M22, trade deficit was up by 33.0% y/y to US$ 6.9bn, as exports increased by 31.8% y/y to US$ 5.0bn, while imports were up by 32.5% y/y to US$ 12.0bn.

Money transfers at record high in Nov-22

Money transfers increased by 151.4% y/y to all-time high US$ 521.2mn in Nov-22, according to NBG, after a 142.9% y/y growth in previous month. From major remitting countries, money transfers increased from Russia (+819.1% y/y accounting for 60.7% of total, part of these funds related to migration), followed by Italy (+11.5% y/y, 6.9% of total), USA (+20.0% y/y, 5.5% of total), Kyrgyzstan (+206.4% y/y, 3.7% of total), Israel (+1.4% y/y, 3.3% of total) and Germany (+41.4% y/y, 3.0% of total). Meanwhile, transfers continued to reduce from Greece (-1.5% y/y, 3.6% of total). Overall, in 11M22 remittances increased by 81.0% y/y to US$ 3.8bn. Tourism revenues surpassed pre-pandemic level in Nov-22 In Nov-22, tourism revenues recovered at 151.2% of Nov-19 level amounting to US$ 305.0mn (+174.8% y/y), according to the NBG. Overall, tourism revenues reached US$ 3.2bn in 11M22 (+182.4% y/y, 103.5% of 11M19 level).

Average monthly nominal wages up by 16.5% y/y in 3Q22

In 3Q22, average monthly nominal wages in Georgia increased by 16.5% y/y after 16.1% y/y growth in 2Q22, according to Geostat. By economic activity, the highest monthly average wages were observed in the following sectors: information and communication (GEL 3,330, +51.8% y/y), financial and insurance (GEL 2,475, +10.7% y/y), construction (GEL 2,305, +15.1% y/y) professional and scientific activities (GEL 2,229, +11.3% y/y) and mining (GEL 2,143, +22.0% y/y). The lowest average monthly wages were posted in education (GEL 920, +11.9% y/y), water supply (GEL 979, +15.3% y/y) and agriculture (GEL 1,146, 23.3% y/y) in 3Q22.

Ministry of Finance T-Bills:

1-year GEL 30.0mn (US$ 11.2mn) T-Bills were sold at the auction held at NBG on December 13, 2022. Total demand was 2.0x higher and the weighted average yield was fixed at 9.452%, down by 0.041ppts from previous auction held in Nov-22.

The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for December 20, 2022, where GEL 100.0mn nominal value 10-year Benchmark bonds will be sold.

Fixed income

Corporate Eurobonds: Bank of Georgia Group Eurobonds (GEBGG) closed at 5.21% yield, trading at 100.49 (-0.02% w/w). Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 94.79 (-0.47% w/w), yielding 10.78%.

Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at 88.11 (-0.04% w/w), yielding 6.62%.

Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 90.88 (+0.56% w/w) at 5.79% yield to maturity.

Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 25.20/share (- 4.36% w/w and +6.11% m/m). More than 513k shares traded in the range of GBP 24.60 - 26.50/share. Average daily traded volume was 115k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 1.04% of its capitalization.

TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 21.50/share (-1.83% w/w and +0.94% m/m). More than 1.6mn shares changed hands in the range of GBP 20.90 - 22.10/share. Average daily traded volume was 153k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 2.92% of its capitalization.

Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 7.40/share (-2.37% w/w and +1.23% m/m). More than 296k shares traded in the range of GBP 7.40 - 7.59/share. Average daily traded volume was 53k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 0.64% of its capitalization.