Glat&Taggart publishes Weekly Market Watch.
Accoridng to the reprot, in Jan-22, both exports and imports continued strong growth. Exports increased by 47.6% y/y to US$ 331.3mn, after growing by 28.8% y/y in previous month. Imports were up by 38.7% y/y to US$ 779.1mn, after growing 25.7% y/y in previous month. As a result, the trade deficit widened by 32.8% y/y to US$ 447.8mn, after a 23.6% y/y growth a month before. The top 5 exported commodities were copper (+33.5% y/y), cars (+46.2% y/y), ferro-alloys (+34.9% y/y), fertilizers (+195.0% y/y) and wine (+68.8% y/y) in Jan-22. A 25.6% of exports were directed to the EU (+72.3% y/y), 49.8% to the CIS (+79.1% y/y) and 24.6% to other countries (-2.0% y/y). The top 5 imports were cars (+46.8% y/y), petroleum (+97.7% y/y), gases (+37.8% y/y), pharmaceuticals (+37.4% y/y) and telephones (+95.7% y/y) in Jan-22.
Loan portfolio increased by 17.2% y/y in January 2022
In Jan-22, the banking sector loan portfolio growth came in at 17.2% y/y (-1.1% m/m), excluding FX effect, after a 18.2% y/y growth in previous month. In unadjusted terms, loan portfolio was up 10.5% y/y (-2.1% m/m) to GEL 42.2bn (US$ 13.8bn). By sector, corporate loan growth (exc. FX effect) was 15.6% y/y (+17.9% y/y in previous month) and retail loan growth stood at 18.8% y/y (slightly up from +18.4% y/y in previous month) in January. Notably, mortgage loan portfolio increased by 11.6% y/y in January after growing by 12.0% y/y in previous month. In Jan-22, loan dollarization reduced to 50.0% (-5.46ppts y/y and -0.59ppts m/m) and NPLs stood at 2.0% (-0.58ppts y/y and +0.09ppts m/m).
Bank deposits growth slowed to 11.5% y/y (-0.2% m/m, exc. FX effect) to GEL 36.8bn (US$ 12.0bn) in Jan-22, after a 12.2% y/y growth in previous month. By currency, GEL deposits growth accelerated to 13.3% y/y (from 11.6% y/y in previous month), while FX deposits growth (exc. FX effect) slowed to 10.3% y/y (from 12.6% y/y in previous month) in January. The deposit dollarization reduced to 58.6% (-2.87ppts y/y and -1.37ppts m/m).
Producer price index up 16.2% y/y in January 2022
Annual PPI for industrial goods retreated to 16.2% in Jan-22 from 20.3% growth in previous month, according to Geostat. Price changes in manufacturing (+21.9% y/y) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (-10.4% y/y) contributed the most to the overall index change in January.
Ministry of Finance Benchmark Bonds:
5-year GEL 80.0mn (US$ 26.9mn) Benchmark bonds were sold at the auction held at NBG on February 22, 2022. Total demand was c.2.3x higher and the weighted average yield was fixed at 9.685%, down by 0.110ppts from the previous auction held in January 2022.
The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for March 1, 2022, where GEL 20.0mn nominal value 6-month T-bills and GEL 70.0mn nominal value 2-year Benchmark bonds will be sold.
5-year GEL 80.0mn (US$ 26.9mn) Benchmark bonds were sold at the auction held at NBG on February 22, 2022. Total demand was c.2.3x higher and the weighted average yield was fixed at 9.685%, down by 0.110ppts from previous auction held in January, 2022.
The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for March 1, 2022, where GEL 20.0mn nominal value 6-month T-bills and GEL 70.0mn nominal value 2-year Benchmark bonds will be sold.
Fixed income
Corporate Eurobonds: Bank of Georgia Group Eurobonds (GEBGG) closed at 2.22% yield, trading at 105.19 (+0.73% w/w). Georgia Capital Eurobonds (GEOCAP) were trading at 100.43 (-0.57% w/w), yielding 5.90%.
Georgian Railway Eurobonds (GRAIL) traded at 95.49 (-1.35% w/w), yielding 4.84%. Georgian Sovereign Eurobonds (GEORG) closed at 92.14 (-4.28% w/w) at 4.87% yield to maturity.
Equities
Bank of Georgia Group (BGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 13.44/share (-10.76% w/w and -8.70% m/m). More than 1.0mn shares traded in the range of GBP 12.38 - 15.10/share. Average daily traded volume was 101k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of BGEO shares traded was at 2.05% of its capitalization.
TBC Bank Group (TBCG LN) closed the week at GBP 12.20/share (-18.67% w/w and -14.33% m/m). More than 334k shares changed hands in the range of GBP 12.10 - 14.88/share. Average daily traded volume was 43k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of TBCG shares traded was at 0.61% of its capitalization.
Georgia Capital (CGEO LN) shares closed at GBP 5.65/share (-12.81% w/w and -8.72% m/m). More than 1.7mn shares traded in the range of GBP 5.57 - 6.47/share. Average daily traded volume was 135k in the last 4 weeks. The volume of CGEO shares traded was at 3.54% of its capitalization.
