On a question of how the current restrictions will change the economic growth rates for 2020 and 2021, Ivane Machavariani said that the decline is likely to be more than 5% this year. At the same time, Machavariani says that the restrictions adopted will further reduce the prospects for economic growth in 2021. However, a positive factor for next year, which should contribute to economic growth, is the COVID-19 vaccine, the positive effect of which the Minister predicts from the second half of 2021.
Impact of new restrictions on economic growth in 2020:
"Most likely, the impact of the restrictions on the economy will be more than -5%. You know that the August-September data on economic growth was quite promising; the fiscal data was also promising. In October, we had 1.7% more revenue in fiscal terms than the previous year. We were lagging behind the plan, but it was an indicator of a serious recovery process.
In November, we have reduced budget revenues. We see that economic activity will be reduced. The previously mentioned decline of -5% was counted from a more optimistic period. It is impossible that November and December, which is full of restrictions, won't affect the areas that the Prime Minister spoke about. It is also important that this factor allows us to revise the forecast of economic growth in 2021 - said Machavariani.
Impact of restrictions on 2021 economic growth:
"The imposed restrictions further aggravate the 4.3% growth forecast. However, there is another factor that improves this forecast, and this is a vaccine, in case of timely adoption of which the second half of the year will recover much faster than the initial forecast - 4.3%, "- said Ivane Machavariani.
According to the Minister, calculations are to be made, although it is possible to maintain a 4% economic growth forecast.
