PMCG Research Center published a report on the economic outlook for Georgia in 2021.
PMCG has developed three possible scenarios with respect to the development of the crisis, each of which are outlined below.
Baseline scenario - This assumes that the economy will by and large manage to return to pre-pandemic long-term growth rates, however the impact of the pandemic will still be felt. This scenario assumes no further lockdowns and no third wave of the virus, while also assuming that the timeline of vaccination proceeds in line with the current plan, and that tourism enjoys a moderate recovery in the summer.
Optimistic scenario - This assumes that economic activity will recover faster than pre-pandemic growth rates. This scenario assumes positive developments such as accelerated global and local vaccination, and thus a better-than-expected recovery of the tourism sector.
Pessimistic scenario - This assumes that economic activity will only partially recover to pre-pandemic growth rates, with the impact of 2020 still having a huge toll. This scenario assumes negative developments such as laggard global and local vaccination, and thus worse-than-expected recovery of the tourism sector, as well as a possible third wave of the virus and further toughening of restrictions.
By considering the impact on each sector of the economy of Georgia2 in the three proposed scenarios, it is possible to forecast the real growth of the Georgian economy in 20213. If the baseline scenario proves true, Georgia’s real economy is expected to grow by 3.0%. Should the optimistic scenario play out, the Georgian economy is expected to grow by 5.4% while in the event of the pessimistic scenario becoming reality, the expected rise is 0.3%
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