According to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report, Armenia's GDP in 2022 is expected to grow by 3.5%, down 1.3 p.p. from the previous forecast, made in January.
World Bank analysts expect Armenia's GDP to grow by 4.6% in 2023 (0.8 p.p. down from the January forecast) and by 4.9% in 2024.
Armenian government’s growth projection for 2022 is 7%, and the inflation is set at 4% (± 1.5%). Earlier, the Central Bank revised its growth forecast for 2022 1.6% from an earlier projection of 5.3%.
Armenia's economic activity index (EAI) in the first 4 months of 2022 registered a 9.4% year-on-year growth, the National Statistical Committee reported earlier.
According to the WB report, the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia- Ukraine conflict has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what could become a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation.
WB expects the global growth to slump from 5.7 percent in 2021 to 2.9 percent in 2022— significantly lower than 4.1 percent that was anticipated in January.
Growth in advanced economies is projected to sharply decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022—1.2 percentage point below projections in January. Growth is expected to further moderate to 2.2 percent in 2023, largely reflecting the further unwinding of the fiscal and monetary policy support provided during the pandemic.
Among emerging market and developing economies, growth is also projected to fall from 6.6 percent in 2021 to 3.4 percent in 2022—well below the annual average of 4.8 percent over 2011-2019, ARKA reports.
