TBC Capital published Weekly Update from the Chief Economist. According to the document, May exports, imports, tourism and remittances print was very strong, somewhat marginally, but still above our expectations, even when adjusted for the impact of Russia (detailed data on external trade will be available this week).
"Therefore, we update our latest 2022 growth outlook from up to 8% to above 8%. Also we are slightly more bullish on the GEL. Last week was also notable as the IMF approved a three-year $280 million precautionary Stand-By Arrangement for Georgia", - the document reads.
As of the report, May credit growth was also strong, with the GEL part being higher. As the record high interest rate differential is expected to gradually narrow, TBC Capital does not assume any strong dedollarization measures next week, during the NBG Monetary Policy Committee meeting, or in the near term.
"As for the policy rate, our best guess is the same, the rate to stay unchanged for the reasons outlined a week ago. Though updated unit labor costs indicate to a relatively more moderate, but still higher wage pressures on inflation as compared to the target, the supply side remains as a major driver", - TBC Capital notes in the report.
