TBC Capital has published a macroeconomic sector overview of the country.
The document says that despite stronger-than-expected recovery in non-tourism economy and higher-then-planned fiscal stimulus, EPID-situation and regional conflicts weighs negatively on the growth projection and the probability of downward revision is higher.
Specifically, according to the updated forecast for 2020, exports will decrease by 11%, tourism by 84%, and foreign direct investment by 35%. According to TBC Capital, remittances will be increased by 5% this year.
As for the 2021 forecast, TBC Capital expects the improvement of key macroeconomic parameters.
The document revises the forecast for economic growth next year. TBC Capital will reduce economic growth in 2021 from 5% to 4-4.5%. The reason is the pace of tourism recovery and the pandemic.
As for the updated forecast of economic growth in 2020, TBC Capital writes in the review that the country's GDP will be increased by 5-5.5% this year.
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