18.May .2022 17:00

Tourism Revenues At 70.6% Of 2019 Level In April - Galt&Taggar

Tourism Revenues At 70.6% Of 2019 Level In April - Galt&Taggar
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Galt&Taggart published a monthly report. According to the document, total international arrivals stood at 214,644 persons in April, – up 160.1% y/y and accounting for 39.0% of 2019 level.

This growth was predominantly driven by increase in tourist arrivals recovering at 52.3% of 2019 level (up from 48.5% recovery in previous month). Same-day trips remain low recovering at only 16.0% of 2019 level due to persisting regulations of neighboring countries on a cross-border travel.

Notably, tourism arrivals (reported by GNTA) capture only visitors leaving Georgia in reporting month and do not include migrants, moving to Georgia since Russia-Ukraine war started.

Top country by arrivals was Turkey (16.8% of total), followed by Russia (15.6% of total), and Armenia (15.0% of total). While low, number of arrivals from Israel, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Uzbekistan surpassed 2019 levels.

Tourism revenues stood at US$ 188.6mn in Apr-22 - up 3.8x y/y and accounting for 70.6% of 2019 level (down from 71.3% in previous month).

Markedly, this tourism revenue figure captures also migrants impact (from Russia, Belarus, Ukraine), arriving in Georgia after Russia-Ukraine war started. We estimate, that around 80,000-120,000 visitors relocated in Georgia for longer term than regular tourists (from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine). Migrant inflow is best reflected on real estate market - rent prices in Tbilisi skyrocketed up by 71.6% y/y in Apr-22 and up by 21.7% vs 2019 level. Notably, due to migrant flow these 2 statistics – visitors and revenues - are not reflecting the same trends now. Russia accounted for 19.3% of Apr-22 tourism revenues, followed by Belarus (14.9% of total), Israel (11.1%), EU (11.0%) and Ukraine (10.3%).

"In 2022, we expect tourism revenues to recover to 75% of 2019 level in a baseline scenario, but we also do not rule out faster recovery (85%) considering migrants’ impact",- Galt&Taggart report reads.