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22.Oct .2020 19:00

We need to recalculate forecasts for November - Gamkrelidze

We need to recalculate forecasts for November - Gamkrelidze
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As Head of NCDC stated today COVID-forecasts for November will be renewed. According to the existing outlook, pandemic will reach its peak in Georgia in November and cases might amount to 4-5 thousand daily.

“Making forecasts is a very ungrateful task – Gamkrelidze stated – There is no single instrument, which could define the situation precisely”.

According to the Head of NCDC, they use 3 main instruments in their modelling practices. “These derive from math approaches, where we include different numbers, functions and then these instruments give us the sense of what the spread might look like” – Gamkrelidze stated.

According to him, it is necessary to recalculate the existing forecasts for November. “When we started to work with these instruments from the end of September – Gamkrelidze said – all three instruments pointed that the cases would increase. But to be frank, we have some more cases than projected and this is the reason we need to recalculate the forecast. What we knew by the end of September was that we would enter the peak period in the middle of November, reaching 3-4 or 5 thousand cases per day, but we don’t want to have 3 and 4 thousand cases”.