Galt&Taggart published Weekly Market Watch. According to the report, Georgia’s economy grew by 6.9% y/y in October 2021, the same growth rate as in September 2021, based on Geostat’s rapid estimates.
Notably, real GDP of October 2021 was also up by 2.7% compared to October 2019 level. Cumulatively, in 10M21, growth is estimated at 10.5% y/y, surpassing 10M19 level by 3.7%. In October, growth was recorded in manufacturing, transportation and storage, arts, entertainment and recreation, electricity, hotels and restaurants, trade and financial and insurance activities. Meanwhile, growth was down in construction sector. Galt&Taggart forecasts real GDP growth at 10.5% in 2021.
Inflation was 12.5% y/y and 0.6% m/m in November 2021
Annual CPI inflation retreated to 12.5% in November 2021, after a 12.8% inflation in previous month, according to Geostat. Core inflation (nonfood, non-energy) was 6.1% and core inflation excluding tobacco was also 6.1% in November. By categories, annual inflation was mainly driven by price changes in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+17.0% y/y, +5.35ppts), transport (+20.2% y/y, +2.50ppts), housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+11.5% y/y, +1.68ppts), health (+8.5% y/y, +0.66ppts), restaurants and hotels (+10.9% y/y, +0.62ppts) and furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (+11.6% y/y, +0.60ppts) categories. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.6% inflation in November 2021, reflecting price increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages (+0.6% y/y, +0.22ppts) and transport (+1.7% y/y, +0.22ppts) categories.
According to Glat&Taggart, there were no treasury securities auction last week. The nearest treasury security auction is scheduled for December 7, 2021, where GEL 20.0mn nominal value 6-month T-bills and GEL 50.0mn nominal value 2-year Benchmark bonds will be sold.
