Galt&Taggart published Weekly Market Watch. According to the document, G&T predicts that average annual inflation will be 2.7% in 2023, while in 2024 - 3.5%.
Investment bank reviews the changes in the October consumer price index and the causing factors.
"Om 2023, the annual inflation saw a slight rise to 0.8%, from the previous month's 0.7%. A notable development in October was the drop in food and non-alcoholic beverages prices, marking the first decline since Nov-16.
This reduction in food prices almost balanced out the upward pressure caused by the increase in oil prices. On aggregate level, in October, both imported and mixed goods inflation stayed in negative territory, and domestic inflation continued its anticipated decrease (+4.5% y/y in Oct-23 vs +5.3% y/y in Sep-23).
Notably, core inflation (non-food, non-energy, non-tobacco) reduced to 2.1% y/y vs 2.5% y/y in Sep-23. By categories, annual inflation was mostly driven by price changes in food and non-alcoholic beverages (-1.2% y/y, -0.42ppts), healthcare (-3.2% y/y, -0.33ppts), alcoholic
beverages & tobacco (+6.6% y/y, +0.45ppts), utilities (+4.2% y/y, +0.43ppts) and transport (+1.2% w/w, +0.22ppts) categories. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.6% inflation in Oct-23, driven by price increase in transport (+3.6% m/m, +0.45ppts) category. We forecast average annual inflation at 2.7% for 2023 and 3.5% for 2024",- the document reads.
