According to Armenian economist Agasi Tadevosyan, Armenia's banking system has undergone significant changes in recent years. In 2022, there was an unprecedented increase in bank transfers from individuals, rising 2.5 times to reach $5.2 billion.
Tadevosyan notes that this growth was primarily driven by transfers from Russia, which surged fourfold in 2022—from $865 million to $3.6 billion. This led to the strengthening of the Armenian dram and a substantial increase in commercial bank profits.
However, the economist highlights that the situation shifted in 2023. While annual growth in bank transfers was 9.7%, monthly data analysis shows that the peak was reached in May 2023, followed by a decline. Tadevosyan points out that net capital inflow decreased by 36%, from $2.6 billion to $1.6 billion.
An interesting development is the shift in the geography of capital outflows. According to Tadevosyan, there has been a significant rise in transfers to the United Arab Emirates, which now accounts for 17.5% of Armenia’s capital outflow, making it the leading destination.
In conclusion, Agasi Tadevosyan warns of potential risks for Armenia's banking system and economy as a whole. He calls for a realistic assessment of the country's economic prospects, cautioning against letting the significant growth of the past two years, largely fueled by capital inflows from Russia, obscure the true economic picture.
