In an exclusive interview with BMG, we sat down with Benyamin Poghosyan, Senior Research Fellow at the Analytical Center APRI Armenia, to delve into Armenia's potential candidacy for EU membership and its economic ramifications. With insights grounded in geopolitical realities and economic considerations, Poghosyan offers a nuanced perspective on Armenia's European aspirations, the challenges it faces in navigating between the East and the West, and the implications of closer ties with the EU on its economy.
Mr. Poghosyan, thank you for your time. Please tell me, how do you evaluate the resolution adopted by the European Parliament with the possibility of granting Armenia the status of candidate for EU membership?
I believe that this is more about aspiration than about reality because, first of all, let's not forget that Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, first they signed association agreements, then only after 8 or 9 years they became candidates or obtained candidate status for EU membership. Armenia doesn't even have an association agreement. But even if we believe that there will be some exception for Armenia and Armenia will be told you can become or obtain candidate status without signing an association agreement, there will definitely be a clear demand that Armenia at least should start the withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union. I simply don't believe and don't see any way Armenia can start the process of obtaining candidate status for the EU, simultaneously not starting the process of withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union. But withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union itself is a very complicated and messy process which I'm not sure Armenia will even start. So we are speaking about hypothetical possibilities and real things.
Are there any discussions at the government level in Armenia on the country's association, the country's membership to the EU?
I'm not sure about membership. There are discussions about Armenia's European aspirations. And we know that the Prime Minister in October 2023, when he spoke in front of the European Parliament, said that Armenia is ready to deepen its relations with the European Union as much as the European Union is ready to deepen its relations with Armenia. But simultaneously, you can also say we are ready to deepen our relations with Armenia as long as Armenia would like to deepen its relations with the European Union. The problem here is that unfortunately, now we have a very steep confrontation between Russia and the West, and Armenia is already in a precarious situation because of the freezing of its relations with the CSTO. Any realignment towards the European Union, which at least will mean that Armenia should start the process of withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union, will be perceived by Russia as a clear sign of Armenia making a U-turn or pivot to the West, which may create significant security threats for Armenia, especially given the fact that Azerbaijan or Turkey most probably are waiting for any chances to launch a new attack against Armenia.
How will the rapprochement with the EU affect Armenia and its economy?
Deepening relations with the European Union is one thing, and we have CEPA, before CEPA we have another agreement with the European Union, so deepening economic relations with the European Union is okay, but if we are speaking about the start of the process of withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union, definitely it will have very tough implications for Armenia. Let's not forget that more than 50% of Armenian exports go to Russia. From Russia, we are receiving more or less cheap gas, which allows not only to heat our apartments, but also allows our industry, especially agriculture, greenhouses, etc., to be more competitive. So definitely, this will be very, very painful. I'm not an expert on the economy to speak about numbers, etc., but of course, let's say this way. If Armenia really decides that it should leave the Eurasian Economic Union or should start the process of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union, hoping that somewhere in 10, 15, or 20 years it will become a member of the European Union or will become a candidate for membership of the European Union, then Armenia will suffer much, at least economically.
