The Banking Association of Georgia expects the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) to maintain its refinancing rate at 8% through the end of 2025. According to David Rusia, the association’s analytical director, the likelihood of a rate cut has diminished due to a recent uptick in inflation.
“In our opinion, the 8% refinancing rate will remain until the end of the year,” Rusia told BMG.
“Inflation has increased slightly, and accordingly, we do not think that the National Bank will take any cardinal steps regarding the rate reduction.” He added that, as a result, loan interest rates are also expected to remain unchanged during the remaining two monetary policy meetings of the year.
Rusia noted that external monetary conditions also play a role in this outlook. He pointed out that while the U.S. Federal Reserve reduced its rate by 0.25% in September, no further rate cuts are anticipated before the end of the year, reinforcing the expectation of stability in Georgia’s monetary stance.
The analyst also emphasized the rising demand for lari-denominated resources within the banking sector, which has increased competition among financial institutions. “The more the National Bank supplies the Georgian banking sector with this resource, the better. We are ready to take this lari, invest it, and release it back into the economy,” Rusia said.
