Georgia’s economic growth is not being reflected in the lives of a large part of the population, financial expert Vasil Revishvili said on BMGTV’s “Tsertili,” analyzing the structure and key drivers of the economy. He said current activity and strong headline figures are concentrated in sectors where generated income is not broadly distributed among the population.
Revishvili agrees with TBC Capital analysts that the boom in commodity production and exports is having a relatively limited impact on real economic growth. According to TBC Capital, business output rose 11.5% in the first half of 2026, mainly driven by manufacturing, with more than 90% of the increase coming from petroleum products and metals. Revishvili described this as an oligopolistic sector that requires relatively little labor, meaning its revenues are concentrated among a narrow group.
He said the main growth driver has shifted from IT to the processing sector, largely due to petroleum product exports. Exports in this category reached $1 billion in the first seven months and could rise to $1.7–1.8 billion by year-end, partly supported by a 15% increase in prices following the Iran conflict. At the same time, construction has clearly slowed, IT growth has stagnated, while tourism continues to bring money into the economy but remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments.
Revishvili identified external shocks as a key risk for the economy. He said the departure of around 30,000 IT specialists due to changes in the geopolitical environment could potentially lead to an economic contraction of around 3%. Another risk is a possible decline in global oil prices if international agreements enable increased Iranian or Russian oil exports, which could sharply reduce Georgia’s petroleum export revenues. He said replacing this lost activity could take 1–1.5 years, particularly as construction has slowed and other sectors have not yet developed sufficient capacity.
According to Geostat, Georgia’s economy grew by 7.9% in the first seven months of 2026.
