After three years of rapid growth, Armenia’s economy is expected to achieve more balanced performance in 2025, according to analysts at the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) in their latest macroeconomic review. Inflation is forecast to return to the target range as early as the first quarter of the year.
EDB experts project Armenia’s GDP growth will reach 5.5% in 2025, stabilizing at 5.3% and 5.0% over the following two years. This will be driven by a stimulative fiscal policy and more accommodative monetary conditions.
External factors are also expected to have a positive impact on Armenia’s economy. The bank anticipates accelerated economic growth in China and a rebound in business activity in the Eurozone. While economic expansion in Russia and the United States is forecast to slow, it will remain at relatively strong levels. Additional support will come from stable demand for export goods, rising global copper prices, and a recovery in remittance inflows.
Regarding inflation, EDB analysts predict a return to the Central Bank of Armenia’s target range (4±1.5%) in the first quarter of 2025.
By the end of the year, inflation is expected to reach 3.1% and stabilize near the lower boundary of the target range at 2.8% in 2026–2027. This will be facilitated by a recovery in global food prices, the effects of a reduced refinancing rate, and moderate depreciation of the Armenian dram.
