The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has adjusted its economic growth forecast for Armenia, lowering the projection for the current year but raising expectations for the next. In its latest macroeconomic review, the bank provided a detailed analysis of the country’s current economic situation and growth prospects.
According to updated data from the EDB, Armenia’s GDP is expected to grow by 6% in 2024, down from the previously forecasted 7.5%. However, the projection for 2025 has been raised from 4.2% to 5.5%. For 2026 and 2027, the bank predicts growth rates of 5.3% and 5%, respectively.
The downward revision for 2024 is attributed to adjustments in first-quarter GDP data and a reduced contribution from the manufacturing sector and the export of precious metals. Despite this slowdown, Armenia’s economy continues to demonstrate strong growth, with economic activity rising by 8.1% year-on-year from January to October.
Key growth drivers during this period included trade (+18.8%), industry (+11.7%), and services (+5.8%). However, analysts observed a slowdown in industrial activity starting in the second quarter. While manufacturing accounted for approximately 40% of economic activity in the first quarter, its contribution fell to 11% between June and October.
Notably, the production of basic metals, including gold, grew by 3.3 times compared to the same period last year. The services sector showed substantial growth in financial services (+7.4%), entertainment and recreation (+29.8%), and hospitality and catering (+14.7%).
The construction sector, supported by robust mortgage lending growth (+28.5%), expanded by 15.9%. Domestic demand continues to grow, driven by steady increases in consumer lending (+22.9%) and planned government spending in the fourth quarter of 2024.
