International credit rating agency Fitch has revised Armenia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 downward from 5.5% to 4.8%, citing delays in launching the Amulsar gold mining project and diminishing effects from migrant inflows.
According to Fitch, Armenia’s economic growth slowed to 6% in 2024, following impressive rates of 8.3% in 2023 and 12.6% in 2022. The deceleration is attributed to the waning positive impact of the large influx of migrants from Russia and Ukraine.
For 2026, Fitch projects further slowing to 4.5%, driven by an anticipated deceleration in the services sector and credit growth. However, the commencement of operations at the Amulsar mine could provide an additional boost to the economy.
The external sector remains a weak point for Armenia’s economy. The current account deficit reached 4.2% of GDP in the first three quarters of 2024, significantly higher than the "BB" median of 2.2%.
A substantial volume of gold re-export from Russia to the UAE - amounting to $4.9 billion, or 47% of Armenia's total goods exports - declined significantly during the first three quarters of 2024 and is unlikely to be repeated. Fitch expects the current account deficit to average 4.3% of GDP in 2025-2026.
The coverage of current external payments by international reserves dropped to two months in 2024. Excluding gold re-export transactions, this figure stands at 2.7 months. It is expected to average 3.2 months in 2025-2026, still below the "BB" median of 4.9 months.
Net external debt is forecasted at 26.8% of GDP for 2025-2026, approximately twice the median for countries in the same rating category.
