Galt & Taggart, one of the leadig investment banks in Georgia expects average Georgian lari (GEL) rate at 2.55 vs dollar in 2023. "The GEL deprecated by 3.8% m/m in May, but still gaining 4.4% vs dollar year-to-date," Galt & Taggart researchers state in their recent publication - Monthly economic review - reduced inflation.
"The GEL deprecated by 3.8% m/m in May, but still gaining 4.4% vs dollar year-to-date. We attribute the recent depreciation to one-off factors, as FX inflows remain robust and tourism revenues are growing strongly. Notably, NBG purchased US$ 782.9mn in 4M23 (o.w. US$ 322.4mn in April), resulting record high gross international reserves reaching US$ 5.1bn in April 2023. We expect average GEL rate at 2.55 vs dollar in 2023," the report says.
Moreover, considering disinflation trend, Galt & Taggart researchers see room for additional 100-150bps rate cut through the end-2023.
"The NBG cut its key rate by 50bps to 10.5% on 10 May 2023 meeting. The decision was prompted by a significant deceleration of annual inflation, which dropped to 2.7% in April 2023 from 9.4% in January 2023. Considering disinflation trend, we see room for additional 100-150bps rate cut through the end-2023," the report says.
