According to TBC Capital, Georgia’s nominal GDP is expected to surpass GEL 104 billion in 2025. In its latest macroeconomic update, the investment bank noted that the country’s economy grew by 6.4% in Q3, slightly below the preliminary 6.5% estimate. The modest slowdown reflects a base effect from last year, although seasonally adjusted real GDP accelerated compared to the previous quarter.
TBC Capital anticipates that November’s growth will be slightly higher than October’s 6%, while annual growth is projected to normalize at around 7.3% for 2025. Nominal GDP rose 11.4% in Q3 year-on-year and 12.3% over the first nine months of the year.
The outlook for 2026 depends heavily on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. TBC Capital notes that a peaceful resolution could partially redirect the trade flows that have shifted since 2022. Positive factors include a lower risk premium, strong regional growth, potential declines in consumer goods prices, and a stronger Euro, which would support the Georgian Lari. Under these assumptions, economic growth is projected to stabilize at around 4.5% in 2026.
For 2025, the main contributors to growth were the information & communication and education sectors. In the longer term, comparing with 2019, the largest growth components have been information & communication, transportation, and trade, highlighting the structural transformation of the Georgian economy.
