TBC Capital says the impact of the Middle East conflict on Georgia’s real estate market will depend largely on how long the tensions last. In a short-term resolution scenario, 2026 could turn out more positive than initially expected, driven in part by potential migration flows from the region.
In this optimistic case, demand for housing - both for rent and purchase - would increase. Apartment sales are projected to grow by 2% to 80,100 units, compared to the pre-conflict forecast of 1.4% growth (79,600 units). Prices are also expected to rise slightly faster, with average prices reaching $1,325 per square meter, up 3.2% annually.
However, if the conflict drags on and regional risks intensify, the outlook could turn negative. Prolonged uncertainty would likely weaken consumer confidence, slowing both sales activity and price growth.
In a more adverse scenario, this could even lead to a decline in transaction volumes and property prices, as market sentiment deteriorates and buyers adopt a more cautious approach.
