The united states equity market is still the largest and most liquid capital market in the world and with S&P 500 index at around 5,200 it seems the market getting into an index upgrade cycle as “ equities as an inflation hedge” is becoming more a market narrative.
Gold has been real and honest money for over 6,000 years and bitcoin at times as been referred to as better gold or digital gold 2.0 and a better store of value.
The global financial market speaks a language and investors can learn to read the mind of the market.
Since the end of 2021, and the start of the most aggressive global rate-hike cycle in history, gold is beating the SPX total return by about 5% and Bitcoin by 30%. What's notable is that the metal and crypto had draw downs in 2024, but SPX has essentially been straight up since October last year.
What is remarkable is that gold ETF have seen outflows and Bitcoin ETF have seen aggressive buying and inflows yet the spot price of both gold and bitcoin is steadily rising against the world’s reserve currency. Gold major breakout targets $2700 to 3,000 and a further technical bull market move could bring bitcoin to USD100,000 or even USD 150,000 levels.
Only in 2017, gold and bitcoin were roughly one to one in the sense that gold and bitcoin could be bought or exchanged at USD 1,000 levels. At the end of march 2024, both gold and bitcoin trade at All time record highs against the USD. Gold above 2,000 and bitcoin above, 70,000 us dollars One of the key markets moving events of 2024 if not this decade, will be the November united states of America presidential election.
Rallies that have pushed many of the world's major stock markets to record highs are shrugging off -- so far, at least -- the recent turn in forecasts for higher interest rates. During the latter half of last year, multiples expanded on a combination of surprisingly strong earnings and broadly declining interest rate expectations. With rate forecasts now back on the rise, the still swelling USA equity market valuations may have less underlying support.
37 years ago Mr. Reagan told Mr. Gorbachev, “tear down this wall, mr. Gorbachev” These days China and Russia have been said to discuss or team up to create a payment system based on gold and or bitcoin's blockchain technology— this could potentially be "more dangerous for American money hegemony than nuclear weapons".
In similar historical significance today the focus is on the famous or infamous law suit of the united states of America against Donald J. trump. how the united states handles the byte dance / tik tok incident enables the world to see clearly whether U.S’s so called rules based order serves the world or itself”.
On the back of the United States dollar it says in god we trust and it has been argued by some investors that both gold and bitcoin is good money without the wrong or dysfunctional government.
The United States government can print as many dollars as they want but can not print gold or mine bitcoin. The next bitcoin halving is expected on April 19 th 2024. An independent Brics payment system based on gold or bitcoin blockchain could be an important goal for the future for china and the Russian federation and could be coinciding with a turning point in history.
Bitcoin halving is usually considered bullish for BTC and could be the catalyst to bring the price to 100,000 +. The next bitcoin blockchain halving is expected April 19 th 2024.
Wall street analysts increasingly seem to think or opine that we are still in early days of Bitcoin's integration into traditional asset portfolios.
The emotional & philosophical debate whether crypto is an asset class most probably is behind us as the free markets tells you bitcoin at above USD 70,000. As a sign of the ZEITGEIST, BlackRock as one of the largest asset managers in the world has launched a bitcoin ETF and its CEO Mr. Fink on U.S television opined that Bitcoin is larger than any government Or at least larger than any government that runs law suits against ex and or potentially future presidents.
Bitcoin ETFs are sucking up the BTC available for purchase, and the tipping point in supply dynamics will come this year, faces a “sell-side liquidity crisis” by September or at least before the USA election if institutional inflows continue
Seasoned investors and family office owners and clients know that liquidity is like a taxi on a rainy New York or Saigon night, it disappears “just when you need it the most”
The trend can be your friend in trading & investing and just because it is consensus does not necessarily make it wrong.
Satoshi Nakamoto, he, she it or they allegedly opined "If you don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you".
The decline of the roman empire happened in lead & bounds but then again they did not have a Bloomberg terminal nor artificial intelligence that is more powerful than human stupidity.
Bitcoin as an institutional investment allocation is only just getting started, and the speed & price impact might be faster most people currently would like to think or would like to admit.
The demise of the Soviet union has shown the world that the global free capital market is larger & more powerful than any government, with or without nuclear weapons.
The soviet union faced goods shortages, today’s digital asset markets face bitcoin shortages as ETF continue to accumulate digital gold.
Rainer Michael Preiss, Partner Portfolio Strategist at Das Family Office in Singapore
