Georgia is likely to see a slowdown in inflation growth over the coming months as global oil prices decline, according to Galt & Taggart economist Lasha Kavtaradze. Speaking on Business Morning, he said the investment bank expects average inflation to reach 4.8% in 2026, while year-end inflation is projected at around 4.5%.
His comments follow the National Bank of Georgia’s decision last week to leave its refinancing rate unchanged at 8.25%. Kavtaradze noted that the decision was supported by easing inflation, which slowed from 5.9% in April, and by signs that economic activity is returning to more sustainable levels.
He also pointed to falling international oil prices as a key factor behind the improved outlook. Brent crude has dropped below $80 per barrel, earlier and more sharply than previously expected, which should help reduce inflationary pressures in Georgia during the second half of the year.
Looking ahead, Galt & Taggart forecasts average inflation of just 2.3% in 2027. According to Kavtaradze, this would give the National Bank room to begin easing monetary policy, with a potential cumulative rate cut of 0.75 percentage points by the end of next year.
