Galt&Taggart now expects the National Bank of Georgia to maintain the monetary policy rate at 8% throughout 2026. The investment bank revised its earlier forecast, which anticipated a 0.5 percentage-point cut, due to the war in Iran and rising geopolitical risks.
According to their analysis, tensions in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have damaged global supply chains and increased energy and transport costs. These external pressures continue to fuel inflation, prompting the National Bank to keep a tight monetary stance.
Galt & Taggart notes that inflation forecasts had already been adjusted upward prior to the regional escalation, making a rate cut increasingly unlikely under current global conditions. As a result, the firm expects the refinancing rate to remain unchanged for the entire year.
The National Bank of Georgia maintained the key rate at 8% during its March 25 meeting, and the next Monetary Policy Committee session is scheduled for May 6.
