Michael McFaul,Professor of Political Science, Director of Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Senior Fellow at Stanford University and former U.S. Ambassador to Russia (2012-2014) responds to the recent developments in Georgia, noting that in the global struggle between autocrats and democrats, Georgia has become another frontline state.
"The world is once again coalescing into two major blocks: the autocratic camp and the democratic camp. Many recognize that we have entered a new era of great power competition and compare it to the Cold War. Even the highly technocratic IMF recently published a paper titled “Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War?”
Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea form the core of the autocratic camp. They do not always act together but many of their efforts are coordinated. For instance, China does not always endorse Russia’s more belligerent actions against the democratic world, including Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, but still assists Russia in its warfare by supplying weapons and technology or attacking democratic ideas and practices through propaganda. Autocratic Iran and North Korea are directly leaning in to supply autocratic Russia with weapons to attack democratic Ukraine. In the Middle East, Russia and Iran have been working together for years to prop up dictators like Bashar al-Assad in Syria and terrorist organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah.
The United States, the European Union, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand are at the core of the democratic camp and have close connections to many other democracies around the world. They too do not always act together. For instance, the United States and the EU have different assessments of the China threat regarding trade and investment. But the rise of China and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has united and consolidated the democratic camp to a much greater extent than ever before in the post-Cold War era.
The battle lines between the autocratic and democratic camps can be seen in many countries around the world. Some Cold War cleavages remain to this day. Think North Korea versus South Korea or the People’s Republic of China versus Taiwan. Some new cleavages have become kinetic and tragic. Think about the fight of democratic Ukraine for its survival against autocratic Russia. Other battle lines are less violent but still consequential. Think of autocratic Hungary’s efforts to sow division in the European Union and NATO.
And then, there are dynamic frontlines between autocrats and democrats within countries. Think Georgia, especially today.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Georgia has experienced ups and downs with its political system and foreign relations. After Georgians ousted a corrupt, Soviet-era Eduard Shevardnadze government as the result of the Rose Revolution in 2003, Georgia’s new president Mikheil Saakashvili – now dying in prison – introduced a set of reforms that led to an exciting democratic breakthrough. Read more about this history here. Russia viewed Georgia’s 2003 democratic revolution as an attempt to re-orient toward the West. To help stop this momentum, Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then occupied 20 percent of Georgia’s territory, and eventually recognized two of Georgia’s regions — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — as independent states.
Similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Georgia helped consolidate pro-Western sentiment in Georgian society. Today, roughly 80 percent of Georgians support membership in NATO and 89 percent support membership in the European Union. At the same time, however, the ruling Georgian Dream party, founded and controlled by Bidzina Ivanishvili – Georgia’s richest oligarch who made his money in Russia and remains closely tied to Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin – has been gradually eroding democracy at home and Georgia’s pro-Western orientation abroad. As my colleagues Francis Fukuyama and Nino Evgenidze wrote in Foreign Affairs last year, “Ever since the party and Ivanishvili took power in 2012, the country’s institutions have been eroding, and Tbilisi has mimicked much of Moscow’s behavior.”
This fight between autocrats and democrats inside Georgia became even more heated when the government re-introduced a “foreign agent” law (they tried to adopt it in March 2023 but failed due to mass protests – I wrote about this here). Ivanishvili has lashed out at Georgia’s non-governmental organizations (NGOs), calling them “pseudo-elite nurtured by a foreign country […] They have no homeland; they do not love their country or their people because they do not really consider them to be their own.” He wants to radically reduce the power and autonomy of these civil society groups and their leaders. This foreign agent law – referred to by Georgia’s democrats as the “Russian Law” – would label civil society groups receiving more than 20 percent of their annual funding from abroad as “foreign agents,” traitors, and enemies of the state. The reintroduction of this draconian draft law has sparked massive demonstrations on the streets of Tbilisi, Batumi, Kutaisi, and other major cities. Yet again, Georgians have bravely stood up for their liberty, despite police brutality and the use of tear gas, rubber bullets, water cannons, and stun grenades against demonstrators.
As the global division between the autocratic and democratic camps has become clearer, Georgia’s government has sided firmly with the dictators, and Putin in particular. In turn, Putin is providing direct assistance to the autocrats in Georgia. The passage of this foreign agents law – the same law that Putin implemented in 2012 in Russia – would represent yet another win for the autocratic camp.
That’s why the United States and the democratic world need to step up their game to more robustly support Georgia’s pro-democratic civil society. Democrats in Georgia need our help right now, not in six months, to counter Putin and his Georgian proxies before it is too late.
First, the United States and its allies should sanction the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili and top Georgian government officials for introducing this highly anti-democratic law. (The West also should investigate how Ivanishvili and his government might be aiding Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and take appropriate measures thereafter.) Members of Georgia’s Parliament should be warned that should they vote for this anti-democratic law in the third reading, they too would be sanctioned. Media outlets, spreading propaganda, law enforcement, and businesses that support the autocratic forces in Georgia should be sanctioned too, if this draft bill becomes law. The U.S. and EU officials should communicate this message to the Georgian officials as soon as possible as a preemptive measure to stop this legislation from passing. Implementing sanctions as a punishment after the law has passed will make it harder to unwind.
Second, the European Union should make it clear that the passage of this legislation will halt the EU accession talks. The Georgian government cannot pass laws that make their country more autocratic and then expect to maintain momentum toward joining one of the most important democratic clubs in the world. They must choose.
Third, if the law passes, American and European aid agencies operating in Georgia should suspend all contacts and programs with the government and redirect those funds to assist Georgia’s civil society. In fact, they should make this pivot today, since the current government in Georgia has not demonstrated any interest in implementing serious pro-democratic, anti-corruption reforms. Trying to induce gradual reform by engagement with the government and Georgia Dream officials has not worked. It’s time for a new strategy.
Georgia is a frontline state in the struggle between autocrats and democrats. It is not yet lost. The time for more active support for democratic forces is now, before it is too late", - he writes.
