Author: Levan Kokaia
Introduction
This article aims to analyze the expected increased demand on electricity produced from the different sources of renewable energy in Georgia and to emphasize the importance of generating more green energy on behalf of ensuring the high quality of life and well-being of the population.
It reviews the following issues:
- Toxic substances emitted into the air by vehicles running on gasoline, gasoline-air, and diesel (in this article the meaning of all these substances will be mentioned as to the "vehicles running on the type of toxic fuel") and their negative impact on the human health.
- Official statistical data of vehicles running on the type of toxic fuel in Georgia and Tbilisi, approximate age of such vehicles and volume of toxic substances released by them on average per year.
- Current political and legislative approach regarding the gradual reduction of emissions and substitutionof electric vehicles, which includes an obligation to increase their number in Georgia by 2030. In addition, an appropriate indicator of the amount of additional green electricity which should be necessarily generated by 2030 to ensure the charging of the expected increased number of the electric vehicles;
- Georgian inapplicable potential of renewable energy sources, an importance of using this potential which will cause the significant reduction of emissions and as a result - the prevention of occurrence a lot of diseases.
Harmful substances released because of exploitation the vehicles running on the toxic fuel type and their negative impact on the human health
As a result of operation the vehicles running on the type of toxic fuel, the following harmful substances are mainly released into the air: carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrate oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and sulfur dioxide (SO2).[1]
Along with the other factors releasing toxic substances, air pollution because of vehicle operation is an important risk factor for human health, which causes various diseases and disrupts the normal functioning of the humans’ different organs. Among them the main diseases and symptoms are a lot of scaring respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, stroke, lung cancer, hearing loss, behavioral disorders, depression, dizziness, weakness, vomiting and nausea, loss of consciousness and comatose state.[2]
World Health Organization states: every year around 7 million premature deaths are attributable to air pollution—a staggering 800 people every hour or 13 every minute. Overall, air pollution is responsible for more deaths than many other risk factors, including malnutrition, alcohol use and physical inactivity.[3] This statistic takes about 1/8 place among the causes of death in the world.[4]
According to the official data of the Legal Entity of Public Law - Environmental Information and Education Centre of Georgia: Major pollutant in urban areas is transport. 62-78% of nitrate oxides (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions in the country is from the transport sector. The emission dynamics is growing rapidly along with the increasing number of vehicles and the fuel consumed.[5]
Share of vehicles running on the type of the toxic fuel in Georgia and Tbilisi
According to the official data of the National Statistics office of Georgia (GEOSTAT), from 2017-until 2023
1) The total number of registered vehicles in Georgia is approximately 9 995 000. From this data the total number of vehicles running on gasoline, gasoline-air and diesel is approximately 6 133 000, which is approximately 62% of the total vehicle fleet of Georgia. The fuel type of the remaining vehicles is electric, hybrid, hybrid-gas, hybrid diesel and unknown fuel type;
2) The total number of registered vehicles in Tbilisi is approximately 3 549 200. From this data the total number of vehicles running on gasoline, gasoline-air and diesel is approximately 2 163 000, which is approximately 62% of the total vehicle fleet of Georgia. The fuel type of the remaining vehicles is electric, hybrid, hybrid-gas, hybrid diesel and unknown fuel type;
3) The share of vehicles running on the type of toxic fuel throughout the Georgia has been increasing by the following percentages for the past 7 years: from 2017 to 2018 the increase was 10.69%; from 2018 to 2019 the increase was 10.20%; from 2019 to 2020 the increase was 8.58%, from 2020 to 2021 the increase was 20.03%; from 2021 to 2022 the increase was 6.73%, from 2022 to 2023 the increase was 8.72%;
4) The share of vehicles running on the type of toxic fuel throughout Tbilisi has been increasing by the following percentages for the past 7 years: from 2017 to 2018 the increase was 8.15%; from 2018 to 2019 the increase was 7.76%; from 2019 to 2020 the increase was 6.84%, from 2020 to 2021 the increase was 11.87%; from 2021 to 2022 the increase was 5.74%, from 2022 to 2023 the increase was 19.06%;
5) About 82% of the vehicles registered in Georgia are over 10 years old. From this amount there are 847 360 units of such vehicles registered in Georgia, which is approximately 14% of the total fleet of vehicles running on gasoline, gasoline-air, and diesel, depending on the type of fuel. The number of such vehicles registered in Tbilisi is approximately 270 210 units, which is approximately 13% of the Tbilisi fleet of vehicles running on gasoline, gasoline-air and diesel, depending on the type of fuel;
6) According to the type of toxic fuel registered in Georgia is the following: the largest number of vehicles running on gasoline is approximately 42%, running on diesel is approximately 20% and running on gasoline-air is approximately 10%, although it is not counted, which type of vehicles are actually driven on a daily/monthly basis in Tbilisi;[6]
7) It is estimated that the average passenger car produces around 4.6 metric tons of CO2 every year. This assumes that the average passenger car’s fuel economy is 22 miles per gallon, and that the car racks up an average mileage of 11,500 miles per year.[7]
The number of constantly moving vehicles in Tbilisi increases about 40% in one year. Each day an average of 650 000 vehicles steadily relocates in Tbilisi, although from this amount there is no official statistical data regarding the type of fuel. If we take into account the above statistical data, we can assume that more than 62% of the 650 000 vehicles continuously emit various toxic substances as a result of their operation. It is significant that the share of hybrid (hybrid, hybrid gas, hybrid diesel) fuel type vehicles is not mentioned in the presented research. The consequence of these type of vehicles operation is also a number of toxic substances abundantly released due to their long-term exploitation, therefore, the above-mentioned statistical data dramatically increases the air pollution, considering that their total quantity in Georgia is about 587 000 units (this amount is also counted from 2017 until 2024).[8]
Considering each presented data, we can make an interim conclusion: Every day in Tbilisi, almost 403 000 vehicles are working on type of toxic fuel, which, together with other toxic substances, releases carbon dioxide in a volume of more than 1 853 800 tons per year. In addition, 82% of the vehicles registered in Georgia are outdated and hybrid fuel type vehicles are not represented in this research, which may significantly increase the volume of the carbon dioxide and other toxic substances released from vehicles on an annual basis.
Political and legislative plan to increase the vehicles working on the green energy in Georgia
Existing condition (statistics of the registered electric vehicles)
According to the data of the last 7 years, the total number of registered electric vehicles is 16 900. Among this amount 12 000 units are represented in Tbilisi, which is approximately 86% of the whole registered data.
Despite the fact that from 2022 to 2023 the rate of registration of electric vehicles covering the whole country increased from 37.19% to 53.88% and for the same period in Tbilisi it increased from 43.19% to 57.88%, it should be noted that the total share of electric vehicles by fuel type is quite low and it is only the 0.3% from the total registered vehicles in Georgia.
If we only subtract the number of the electric vehicles registered in Tbilisi from the share of carbon dioxide emitting vehicles registered in Tbilisi, we will get about 2 151 000 vehicles running on the type of toxic fuel.
Existing policy and legislative approaches to reduce emissions
According to the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) of Georgia, which was published by the Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development of Georgia in 2019:
- The effective utilization of renewable energy sources could result in the production of an additional 20 TWT in the near future, which would save about 7 million tons of conventional fuels. At a regional scale, the exploitation of renewable energy sources outlined above would allow the country to reduce the utilization of fossil fuels and the greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere: by 9 million tons of CO2; 5 000 tons of CO; and 44 000 tons of NO2 (Nitrogen Dioxide);
- Georgia plans to unconditionally reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 15% for the year 2030. The 15% reduction target can be increased up to 25% in a conditional manner. The 25% reduction scenario would also ensure that Georgian GHG emissions by 2030 will stay at 40% below than it was in 1990;
- 23 Georgian cities are signatories of the Covenant of Mayors. As a result, there was elaborated action plan of the sustainable development of the energy, which among the different sectors includes diverse activities regarding developing the green transport sector. According to the action plan, there is supported to use the sources of renewable energy at the local level, to develop the public transportation which will be operated on the green energy.
Regarding electric vehicles, the following priorities are set in the action plan: creation of appropriate infrastructure (building charging stations), giving recommendations for the use of electric vehicles to the private sector and the population.[9]
According to the law of Georgia on “promoting the generation and consumption of energy from renewable sources”, Government of Georgia shall ensure:
- By 2030 the share of consumption of energy received from renewable sources in all types of transport makes up at least 10 % of the final consumption of energy by transport in Georgia. (Article6);
- The public is provided with information on the availability and environmental benefit of energy generated from all types of renewable sources used in transport. (Article1);
- By 31 December 2024 and once every two years thereafter to submit to the Energy Community Secretariat a report on the promotion of energy generated from renewable sources and the progress reached in the process of using such energy. Among the other information in the report there should be indicated the following information: the sectoral and total share of energy received from the renewable sources (electric power, heating and cooling, transport) for the previous two calendar years, as well as measures taken or planned to increase energy received from renewable sources at the national level. (Article1 and 2 „a“).[10]
An encouraging factor is the following approach of the Tax Code of Georgia “left hand electric engine transportation vehicles shall be excising tax exempt without the right to deduct and from import duty”. (Articles: 194.5 „K“ და 199 „P“ ).[11]
The mentioned political and legal approach is a positive signal, but the basic issue is the result which should be achieved for 2030. Apart from energy independence, self-sufficient electricity generation and the increased export potential of the capacity, it is vital to expand the volume of local electricity generation for the purposes of improving the quality of health of the population and preventing diverse diseases. In its turn all of these will sharply increase the industrial and household demand on the green energy.
As it was mentioned in the article, currently the total number of vehicles running on type of toxic fuel is approximately 6 133 000. According to the 2030 plan, because of replacing 15% or at least 25% of vehicles with the electric fuel type, we will get approximately from 919 950 to 1 533 250 electric vehicles. Obviously, the mentioned quantities of the electric vehicles are conditional because there is no doubt that the volume of the registered vehicles for 2030 will be changed.
As of today, monthly capacity to fully charge one electric car approximately requires 3 KW of electricity. If we calculate this volume with the result which should be achieved for the 2030 (replacing from 15% to 25% of the full vehicle fleet with the electric vehicles), we will additionally consume and accordingly we should additionally generate an extra renewable energy from 4 599 750 kW to 2 759 850 kW, which is about 2 760 to 4 600 MW of additional electricity.
Unused potential of Georgian different sources of renewable energies
Georgia has the greatest unexploited potential of wind, solar, geothermal and especially hydro resources.
For hydropower, it is estimated that a total potential capacity of 15 000 MW exists with a total production potential of 50 TWh per year of which approximately 22% is currently utilized in terms of capacity and 17% in terms of production.
The average annual electricity generation potential of wind in Georgia is estimated to be 4 TWh with an installed capacity of 1 500 MW.
According to recent hydro-geological studies, the Georgian geothermal water reserves reach 250 million m3 per year. At present there are more than 250 natural and artificial water channels, where the average temperature of geothermal waters ranges from 30 to 110ºC, while the total potential amount to be withdrawn is 160 000 m3 per 24 hours.
Due to the geographical location of Georgia, solar radiation is rather high. In most regions of the country there are 250 – 280 sunny days annually with approximately 6 000 – 6 780 hours of sunlight per year. The annual solar radiation varies depending on the region from 1,250-1,800 kWh/m.[12]
- Last but not least - inevitability of utilizing the potential of different sources of renewable energy in Georgia
- The negative consequences caused by the climate change are visible for the world and for Georgia as well (numerous episodes of devastating natural disasters, gradual increase of the air temperature "global warming", a deplorable increase of certain diseases, including deadly diseases and the so-called "rejuvenation" tendency some of them);
- Existing policy and legislative approaches to reduce the vehicle emissions are revealed from the Protocol of 14 October 2016 on the Accession of Georgia to the Treaty Establishing the Energy Community and the obligations which took Georgia under the EU-Georgia Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement signed between Georgia and EU. The systematic utilization of various sources of renewable energy is one of the politically and legally declared fundamental tasks leading to Georgia's accession to the European Union, which must be performed on time, unconditionally and with the high quality;
- Georgia should carefully, wisely and maximally useits natural renewable energy diverse and abundant potential. All this should not be the end in itself in order to formally fulfill the international obligations and to nominally meet with the so-called "Program Minimum" to reduce emissions. One of the cornerstones of Georgia's energy, economic and healthcare policy should be the presence of the national interest in reducing emissions, which, along with the economic and energy independence ensures the most valuable - the quality of long-term life and wellbeing of its population due to prevention from the various diseases;
- As reader has found, this article does not refer to use of household gas by heaters and/or air pollution due to industrial reasons, counting the level of carbon dioxide concentration released by them and establishing their correlation with the various diseases of the population. Despite this, it should be emphasized that if the volume of electricity generation increases further, favorable conditions will be created to gradually replace gas heaters with electric heaters, which will be additional powerful preventive mechanism against air pollution and accordingly, the occurrence and progression of certain diseases.
About an author: Levan Kokaia is a lawyer of Non-Profit Organization "Georgian Renewable Energy Development Association '' (GREDA) and a corporate lawyer of the Czech hydroelectro energy company. Master of Law (LLM), Master of Public Administration (MPA). Author of more than 55 scientific and analytical publications. Invited lecturer and trainer at the Georgian Institute of Public Affairs (GIPA).
[1] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee102/node/1951#:~:text=The%20primary%20pollutants%20are%20Carbon,%2C%20and%20Hydrocarbons%20(HCs)
[2] https://www.pennmedicine.org/for-patients-and-visitors/patient-information/conditions-treated-a-to-z/carbon-monoxide-poisoning
[3] https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/five-reasons-you-should-care-about-air-pollution#:~:text=Polluted%20air%20is%20creating%20a%20health%20emergency&text=According%20to%20the%20World%20Health,hour%20or%2013%20every%20minute.
[4] In more detail, 2023 statistics for comparison: https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths#:~:text=There%20were%2061%20million%20people,net%20increase%20of%200.91%25).
[5] https://www.eiec.gov.ge/Ge/Topics/OverView/5
[6] About the number and age of vehicles and the type of the fuel (GEOSTAT): https://www.geostat.ge/ka/modules/categories/797/saavtomobilo-transportis-statistik
[7] https://8billiontrees.com/carbon-offsets-credits/how-much-co2-does-a-car-emit-per-mile/#:~:text=The%20next%20question%20is%2C%20how,of%20CO2%20every%20year.
[8] https://www.geostat.ge/ka/modules/categories/797/saavtomobilo-transportis-statistik
[9] https://www.economy.ge/uploads/files/2017/energy/samoqmedo_gegma/ganakhlebadi_energiis_erovnuli_samoqmedo_gegma_2020.pdf
[10] Law of Georgia on “promoting the generation and consumption of energy from renewable sources”. Legislative Herald of Georgia: https://matsne.gov.ge/ka/document/view/4737753?impose=translateEn&publication=1
[11] Tax Code of Georgia. Legislative Herald of Georgia: https://matsne.gov.ge/ka/document/view/1043717?impose=translateEn&publication=202
[12] https://www.economy.ge/uploads/files/2017/energy/samoqmedo_gegma/ganakhlebadi_energiis_erovnuli_samoqmedo_gegma_2020.pdf
