Imports went up by 3.3% YoY in September 2018 and by 19.1% YoY in the first nine months of the year. In September major drivers of the growth were capital and intermediate goods (+12.0% YoY), while all other categories including transportation (-4.7% YoY), petroleum products (-3.7% YoY) and consumer goods (-3.2% YoY) contributed negatively to imports growth. All types of consumer goods including durable (-6% YoY), semi-durable (-12% YoY) as well as non-durable goods (-2% YoY) declined in USD terms.As a result of much stronger exports growth over imports, the trade balance improved by 4.9% YoY in September 2018, first time since the beginning of 2018. Lower growth of imports appears to be the result of contractionary fiscal policy, slowdown in nonmortgage lending and some one-offs related to South Caucasus pipeline project.
Source: TBC Research
