According to a recent analysis by the Luys Foundation, Armenia's economy is showing concerning trends in the first half of 2024. Despite high growth rates at the beginning of the year, experts note a significant slowdown in economic activity in recent months.
One of the most troubling indicators is the substantial decline in the country's export potential. When excluding re-exports of gold and precious metals, the foundation's experts point out that export volumes have decreased by 15.6%, while imports have dropped by 10%. These figures indicate not only a weakening of Armenia's position in international markets but also a decline in domestic demand.
The situation is further exacerbated by the underperformance of tax revenue collections. In the first half of the year, the budget received 1.18 trillion drams ($3 billion) instead of the planned 1.3 trillion drams ($3.34 billion), creating additional pressure on public finances.
Amid these negative trends, there is an alarming rise in consumer lending. In June 2024, the growth rate of consumer loans reached 29.5%, while mortgage loans grew by 22.5%. Experts from the Luys Foundation express concern that household liabilities are increasing much faster than their incomes.
Earlier, BMG reported that in June of this year, economic activity in Armenia showed a significant increase of 7.1% compared to the same month last year, and for the first six months of 2024, growth amounted to 10.4%.
The economic growth forecast for Armenia in the 2024 state budget is set at 7%, with inflation projected at 4% (±1.5%).
