In its recent Macro-Sectoral Overview, TBC Capital highlighted the expectations followed by the outcome of the US Presidential Elections 2020.
According to TBC Capital if Trump wins, it is possible for the US to have a stricter approach to trade war with China and higher tariffs; maintain no-lockdown approach to managing the COVID-19; increase spending on infrastructure and reduce taxes; have lower US engagement abroad and maintain a critical stance towards NATO’s richer partner countries.
On the other hand, if Biden wins it is possible for the US to continue disputes with China but with more predictability; restrain from imposing tariffs on EU and other advanced economies; impose stricter measures to contain COVID-19; have higher fiscal spending on social policy, green initiatives, and infrastructure most probably leading to an increase in taxes; return to US leadership globally with more international cooperation, more support to NATO and stronger push against Russia.
To this point, what we can say as a fact is that Biden had the support of 70.5 million voters, the most won by any presidential candidate ever. Trump has pulled in 67.2 million votes, four million more than he gained in 2016. Overall turnout in Tuesday's election was projected to be the highest in 120 years at 66.9%, according to the US Election Project.
BM.GE interviewed David Kramer, Director of European and Eurasian Studies and Senior Fellow in the Vaclav Havel Program on Human Rights and Diplomacy at Florida International University’s Steven J. Green School of International and Public Affairs.
From what I read about the voter expectations and the agenda that they set for the next President - they place high value on the presidential candidates' plans to rebuild the economy after the pandemic - who is better at responding to their needs?
These issues are details in the larger picture. It appears Biden will emerge the winner, and while his pledge on the minimum wage is important to low-income people, the need to get control over the pandemic is more important, according to polls. This election came down to the pandemic and Trump's mishandling of it. Voters think Biden will do a better job in handling it.
Not only the US, it seems that globally little else matters for the economic policy beyond weathering the coronavirus pandemic…
The US, Georgia and other countries better get on top of the pandemic while making sure they do not exploit the pandemic for political purposes and consolidate power.
The pandemic has had a disproportionate economic impact on society not only in the US or Georgia but globally - are these strains expected to leave a mark on the politics?
The day after the US election, the U.S. registered more than 100,000 new COVID Cases, setting a record. Georgia is experiencing a serious spike in cases, but many parts of the world are going through huge public health challenges. This will have a major impact on international politics, as governments will have to address this problem immediately.
What is the most important aspect with these elections we need to keep in mind - both in Georgia and in the US - in terms of further relations and trust in democracy?
The U.S. campaign was ugly, with the incumbent threatening not to respect a peaceful transfer of power. It appears that democratic institutions have held up under tremendous pressure. But this election did not make the US shine as a model. The same for Georgia. Despite GD's efforts to spin the election in positive light, there was considerable criticism of the conduct of the election. Both countries need to do better.
