In the 74-year history of NATO, leaders of the military alliance have almost never held their regular summit so close to their traditional adversary. Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, lies just 200 kilometers (125 miles) east of the border of the Russian exclave, Kaliningrad. Ukraine, under invasion by Russia, is just 360 kilometers to the south. Russia's close ally Belarus, where the arrival of Wagner mercenary troops is hotly anticipated, is at a distance of merely 35 kilometers. 2006 NATO leaders met in Riga, Latvia, but back then Russia was not perceived as a threat, more as a partner.
To protect the largest ever gathering of heads of state and government in the history of the small Baltic country, the Lithuanian army and NATO allies are providing about 4,000 troops. If you take police and secret services into account, around 12,000 people will be keeping watch over the two days of the summit on July 11 and 12. Russian "provocations" are to be expected, according to Lithuanian diplomats.
The German military is also playing its part, with the air force having temporarily stationed Patriot missile defense systems around Vilnius to ward off potential attacks. These have been up and running since July 6, the air force announced on Twitter. German special forces of an unspecified nature are also deployed, according to another tweet.
'A weak Putin'?
The Vilnius exhibition center was renovated and expanded for the NATO summit, with Lithuania spending €38 million ($42 million) on the gathering. It is cash well spent, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said. On a visit to the site, Nauseda said a well-organized summit would show the country's maturity. The emphasis was no longer on infrastructure, but on content and the conclusions, he stressed.
Nauseda, an ardent backer of Ukraine and its desire to join NATO, wants above all for the alliance to show unity. The Lithuanian president said it was crucial to capitalize on the current weaknesses of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who recently had to face down a putsch attempt from Wagner troops.
"Some colleagues say that a strong Putin is less dangerous than a weak Putin. I disagree," he said. "We have to move forward and to be decisive, because now is a crucial moment of history. If we are not decisive and united now, tomorrow it will be too late."
What Ukraine seeks
On a trip through several NATO countries ahead of the summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy repeatedly made his wishes crystal clear. "Ukraine is ready to be in NATO," he said. "We are waiting for NATO to be ready to have Ukraine."
Zelenskyy said he understood that Ukraine would not be admitted while the war was ongoing, but said his country at least needed security guarantees. "I think security guarantees are not only important for Ukraine but also for our neighbors, for Moldova, because of Russia's aggression [against] Ukraine and the potential aggression against other parts of Europe."
Ukraine's expectations are high, but German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was among those leaders restating the position of the major NATO countries. "There can be no accession to our defense alliance at all during war. One of the preconditions for membership is having no unresolved border conflicts," he said last week.
Should parts of Ukraine join NATO sooner?
What security guarantees from the major NATO states — the United States, France, Germany and the United Kingdom — could look like immediately after the hoped-for end of the war is hard to say. NATO leaders are at least expected to discuss the matter in Vilnius.
Claudia Major, an expert in security policy at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, finds Scholz's position too hesitant. She has recommended already incorporating the parts of Ukraine firmly under Kyiv's control into the alliance, subjecting them to NATO's mutual defense pact. NATO members are bound to defend each other in the face of an attack.
"It is not a quick and easy process," Major told German broadcaster ARD. "Joining NATO comes with many risks attached. But if you say now 'you can only join after the war,' then that means de facto that Russia has an incentive to continue this war endlessly, and thus has a de facto veto on free choice of alliance."
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, whose term was recently extended for another year, has repeated his tried-and-tested maxim that NATO countries would support Ukraine with weapons, ammunition and training for as long as it took to repel the aggressor Russia.
"At the summit, I expect new announcements of military support to Ukraine," Stoltenberg said at NATO headquarters in Brussels ahead of the meeting. "We need to continue support to Ukraine and make sure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign independent nation in Europe."
The sticking points
When it comes to the details of an approach toward Ukraine and of new defense plans to deter and fend off possible Russian attacks on NATO territory, there is still no unity among the delegations of the 30 member states.
Turkey, in particular, is still stonewalling, according to diplomatic sources. And Hungary, which is more sympathetic to Russia than other NATO members, has not been very engaged in its support of Ukraine. France has recently been advocating for Ukraine to rapidly join the alliance. Germany and other Western countries have been more hesitant, while the Baltic states are calling for more weapons and more ammunition for Ukraine — in fact, more of everything.
"It's nice to go to a summit and say, 'Oh we are completely on the same page here. NATO's unity is stronger than ever.' I'm sorry to say it, but this is bullshit," said Stefanie Babst, a former high-ranking NATO strategist, in an interview with Lithuanian broadcaster LRT. "Everybody can see that they are on different avenues. And if we see it, President Putin sees it too, and China sees it and Iran sees it."
Sweden still waiting
The position of NATO heavyweight Washington will be crucial when it comes to deciding on the thorny topics. US President Joe Biden has spoken out against immediate accession for Ukraine, but wants to offer more military aid. Biden also wants to work on getting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey to finally drop his opposition to allowing Sweden into the bloc, which was agreed upon in 2022.
Erdogan is set to arrive in Vilnius on Monday, one day before the summit kicks off, and meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Stockholm asked for backing from the US last week, when Kristersson paid a visit to Washington.
Ankara is still accusing Sweden of not doing enough against suspected Kurdish terrorists. The Hungarian Parliament has also yet to sign off on Sweden's accession. Stoltenberg, however, has assured that a solution to the problem is within reach.
Ukraine's deputy prime minister, Olha Stefanishyna, has been touring Europe in recent months to make the case for Kyiv to quickly get into both NATO and the European Union. In an interview with DW, she shared her thoughts on the prospects for a clear commitment at the Vilnius summit in light of friction within the alliance.
"NATO is a very specific organization," she said. "And, you know, getting the answers from NATO is different from getting the answers from other political friends around the world." In other words, things may well stay rather vague, DW reports.
