Mikheil Kukava, CEO of Stemscale Georgia, says the country’s double-digit economic growth in March is still largely driven by the migration wave triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Speaking to BMG after the release of the 10.7% growth figure, he noted that various data sets continue to show the significant role migrants play in domestic consumption.
According to Kukava, more than 100,000 high-spending, highly skilled migrants from Russia and Belarus who arrived in Georgia in 2022 have become a long-term economic factor. “They are not planning to return, and we see this year after year,” he said, describing the shock as comparable to “Georgia’s population suddenly increasing by one million,” given its impact on spending patterns. Migrants have brought families and businesses, boosting consumption of both consumer and industrial goods.
Kukava emphasized that while part of the value created by migrant-run businesses leaves the country, a substantial share remains in Georgia. Consumption statistics from 2022–2025 clearly show that the current growth trend is powered by spending. “This is the one-off effect we received, and it lasted longer than expected,” he explained, adding that although the impact has been positive, it is not sustainable in the long run.
He warned that the effect will eventually fade as the Russia–Ukraine war will not last forever. Relying on migration-driven consumption, he said, is risky for long-term planning. “We need structural reforms, we need capital inflows, we need foreign direct investment- and as we can see, FDI is declining.” Georgia’s economy grew by 10.7% in March and 9.1% in Q1 2026 overall.
