The National Bank of Georgia (NBG) expects the lari to maintain a strong position over the 2027–2029 forecast period, supported by an improving external balance. According to its latest monetary policy report, a stronger nominal and real effective exchange rate should help reduce imported inflation and partially offset rising energy prices on global markets.
The NBG identifies geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, oil supply restrictions and higher global energy prices as the main sources of inflationary pressure. Under its central scenario, oil supply constraints will persist through the end of 2026, while declining global inventories and diesel shortages could put further upward pressure on crude oil prices.
The central bank expects these pressures to ease gradually from the second quarter of 2027. Falling petroleum product prices and a high base effect from the previous year are also expected to help reduce fuel inflation. The NBG says a relatively strong lari, tighter monetary policy and restrictive domestic and global interest-rate conditions should help keep inflation expectations stable.
On October 21, the NBG kept its key policy rate unchanged at 8.25% but raised its 2026 inflation forecast from 5.2% to 5.4%. The bank attributed the revision to persistent inflationary pressures in global markets.
