The Parliamentary Budget Office publishes independent macroeconomic forecasts, which include both baseline and optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
According to the forecast provided by the Budget Office in the baseline scenario, the Georgian economy will grow by 6.7% in 2022. This forecast is 0.7 percentage points higher than the government forecast (6.0%) and 1.1 percentage points higher than the figure published by the Budget Office in December 2021.
As of the baseline scenario, real GDP growth in 2023 will be 5.2%, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than the government forecast.
"This forecast is based on the assumption that the high economic growth trends observed after the pandemic will continue, as well as tourism will increase, foreign trade and other economic indicators will remain at a significant level. The assumption also takes into account the domestic economic activity of the country, as well as - preliminary estimates and forecasts of economic growth of Georgia," - the document reads.
As for the optimistic forecasts, according to the budget office, in 2022, the Georgian economy may grow by 7.9%; and with a GDP growth rate of 6.6% in 2023, these figures are almost 1 pp higher than the government forecast.
According to the pessimistic scenario, the Parliamentary Budget Office predicts 5.2% growth of the Georgian economy this year; and in 2023 - 3.2% GDP growth.
