According to the latest report by S&P Global, Georgia’s economy is expected to expand by 5.4% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027. These projections are slightly higher than the agency’s previous forecast, which anticipated 5.2% growth in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027.
The agency left Georgia’s sovereign credit rating unchanged at BB, with a stable outlook. S&P notes that the Georgian economy remained resilient in 2025, growing by 7.5%, driven primarily by private consumption.
"As consumption normalizes, we expect growth to gradually slow to around 5.4% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027," the report states. The agency expects private investment (excluding government spending) to be moderate, reflecting a cautious investment environment amid elevated political uncertainty and the EU’s decision to suspend Georgia’s accession process. Importantly, S&P emphasizes that the baseline forecast does not include the $6 billion Eagle Hills project, which, if implemented, would represent a significant upside for growth and investment.
S&P also highlights that Georgia’s fiscal and monetary frameworks remain comparatively prudent within the regional context, supported by past structural reforms that strengthened macroeconomic stability and the business environment. However, policy predictability has weakened over the past two years due to domestic political developments and changes in Georgia’s external policy anchors.
"The suspension of the EU accession process has reduced an important external reference point that previously supported reform momentum and investor confidence. In parallel, a series of recent legislative initiatives, including measures affecting foreign funding and civil society, were sometimes adopted rapidly and with limited consultation, contributing to heightened regulatory uncertainty," the report notes.
The agency forecasts that Georgia’s current account deficit will widen to 4.1% of GDP in 2026, up from 3.7% in 2025, mainly due to a larger trade deficit and slower remittance inflows. These pressures will be partially offset by strong tourism revenues and ongoing private transfers. Inflation is expected to reach 3.5% in 2026, and the National Bank is likely to continue a cautious normalization of monetary policy in line with its inflation target. Medium-term fiscal deficits are projected to remain around 2% of GDP.
S&P also assesses Georgia’s banking sector as well-capitalized, with strong liquidity buffers and stable credit growth, remaining profitable under a prudent supervisory framework.
