TBC Capital forecasts that the National Bank of Georgia will expand the volume of foreign currency purchases in May and acquire more U.S. dollars through the Bmatch platform than it did in April, when purchases amounted to USD 333 million.
According to TBC Capital, excess liquidity is currently observed in the FX market, creating favorable conditions for the central bank to continue replenishing its foreign exchange reserves.
“Overall, it can be said that excess supply persists in the FX market in April and May. After selling USD 16 million in March, the NBG purchased USD 333 million in April. In our assessment, FX purchases are expected to be even larger in May.
At the same time, the existing excess supply in the FX market is a supportive factor for the lari. According to TBC Capital’s short- and long-term equilibrium models, the lari remains undervalued. Therefore, in our updated forecast, the USD/GEL exchange rate is expected to reach around 2.65 by year-end,” TBC Capital’s macroeconomic update states.
In total, the NBG purchased USD 833 million between January and April, bringing foreign exchange reserves to USD 6.47 billion as of the end of April.
The National Bank of Georgia’s FX interventions in 2026 are as follows:
January: Net purchase of USD 86.6 million via Bmatch
February: Net purchase of USD 429.3 million via Bmatch
March: Net sale of USD 16.2 million via Bmatch
April: Net purchase of USD 333.3 million via Bmatch
