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TBC Capital Published Weekly Update From The Chief Economist

Natia Taktakishvili
19.12.22 14:00
TBC Capital published Weekly Update from the Chief Economist. According to the document, tourism and remittance inflows continue to demonstrate strong performance also in November with an outstanding 151% recovery of the former compared to 2019, including the migration impact, and the latter being at highs even after the relevant adjustments.

As for the trade in goods, MoM pick-up was evident, though the overall dynamics seems to be back to normal, rather than elevated as in the previous months primarily on the back of much higher commodity prices.

"An estimated monthly net balance of exports, imports, tourism and remittance inflows worsened, however, more notably in nonseasonally adjusted terms, with no impact on the GEL, once again to note, in line with our expectations. Also, higher NBG net international reserves in November certainly are not a surprise as the interventions, to be released by the end of December were likely at least as sizable as in October. Strong growth in wages in Q3 and elevated unit labor costs is also a baseline, with still a bet on the normalization once the growth and inflation
are around the trend. Therefore, we have not revised our latest outlook for the GEL rates the Wednesday MPC to leave the stance unchanged and the first cut envisaged in March", - the document reads.

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