Thailand is commonly known as the land of Smiles, but as of today and per bloomberg data it is the world's worst performing equity market with -14.83% YTD.
In Bangkok last week a prominent nonsmiling Thai stockbroker opined THAI stocks are dead. This came at the time when SET stock exchange of Thailand has entered a correction phase, and foreigners are mostly still underweight Thai stocks. SET officials urged investors to take a long-term outlook amid the stock market correction.
The Thai ESG extra fund was endorsed by the THAI government and cabinet last week to limit the downside risk of the local market and to help to boost the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index to reach 1,300 points.
Investors and family office clients should re-call the cyclical nature of financial markets, where extreme pessimism often precedes eventual recovery, creating great Long-run investment returns.
The SET 100 index closed the week ended Friday March 14th, 2025, at 1,173.77 index points.
The New York listed Thailand country ETF closed the week at USD 53.31 with a one-year decline of -12%. The THB Thai baht was 33.49 against the United States dollar and 25.10 against the Singapore dollar.
The THAI country ETF pays a U.S. dollar dividend yield of 3.57%. According to available sources, at least 33 Thai companies have ADRs trading on U.S. over the counter (OTC) markets. BBL Bangkok Bank stock is the bell weather stock for the Thai banking sector and it’s New York listed ADR Bangkok Bank PCL ADR (BKKLY) closed the week at USD 22.52 levels as the Bangkok main listing closed the week at THB 145.50. Some analysts have expressed disappointment with BBL Bangkok Bank, believing it relatively low dividend payout of 5.84% could make it a value trap.
However, among the analyst community, Thai banking stocks remain a preferred sector because of their attractive dividend yields and improving return on equity outlook. Analysts also have a positive outlook on sustainable dividend growth, supported by stable earnings. In addition, some investors seek higher fee-based income from wealth management and capital market activities, which could enhance ROE without additional credit risk. Lower credit costs are expected to support a 4% earnings growth or the sector this year.
Thai banks are trading at a price to book value ratio (P/BV) of 0.75 times for 2025, which remains attractive given expected ROE improvement over the next two years.
Investors and family office clients should re-call the cyclical nature of financial markets, where extreme pessimism often precedes eventual recovery and create great Long-run investment returns.
Despite short-term fluctuations, the SET Index has demonstrated substantial growth since its inception.
Private clients & global investors should be aware of The Thai ESGX Fund, officially known as the Thai ESG Extra Fund, is a newly established investment initiative approved by Thailand's Cabinet to bolster the domestic stock market amid global economic uncertainties. This fund focuses on encouraging investments in equities that demonstrate strong Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) practices, aligning with sustainable and ethical investment principles.
The Thai ESG extra fund was endorsed by the THAI government last week and could help limit the downside risks for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Index.
Singapore and the kingdom of Thailand were the key drivers behind ASEAN like the Germany and France for the creation of the EU European Union.
Financial markets run on narratives while in the USA and on Wall Street the focus is on tech stocks and AI and the magnificent seven, in Asia and emerging markets the focus is increasingly on AI meaning Asean and India. ASEAN and India as stock markets, where investors and clients should be in SAA “strategic asset allocation.”
Thailand also means Land of the Free" This name reflects the country's history, as Thailand is one of the few nations in Southeast Asia that was never colonized by European powers.
Before 1939 (and briefly between 1945–1949), Thailand was known as "Siam" (สยาม), which was used for centuries.
Thailand's estimated population is approximately 71.6 million people and hence offers several interesting domestic consumption stocks.
In terms of economic standing within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Thailand is projected to be the second-largest economy by nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025, following Indonesia.
In comparison, Malaysia is ranked third in ASEAN, Vietnam 4th and Philippines 5th followed by the island STATE of Singapore at 6th rank among ASEAN economies.
On the macro front, most economists would agree that Thailand’s household debt to GDP ratio at 89.6% the third highest in Asia after south Korea and Hong Kong is a structural tailwind and drag on the local equity market.
SCB Siam commercial bank Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) is Thailand's first and oldest bank, with a deep historical connection to the Thai monarchy.
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield: 8.39%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate: 10.44 THB per share
Forward Annual Dividend Yield: 8.39%
Compare this with the fixed deposit rates at the bank ranging from 1% to 2% for one year and two years fixed deposit rate, and the “equity income argument” and THAI stocks like SCB for the long-term becomes clear.
Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) holds the following analyst ratings:
Consensus Rating: Outperform
Number of Analysts: 22
Average Target Price: 118.71 THB
BBL: Bangkok Bank
Bangkok Bank is Thailand's largest bank by total assets, with approximately 4.51 trillion Thai baht.
BBL is the 6th largest bank in Southeast Asia and the largest bank in Thailand by total assets. It also boasts Thailand’s largest retail customer base, serving around seventeen million accounts.
The Bank will mark its 80th anniversary on December 1, 2024. Bangkok Bank as a ‘leading regional bank’ celebrates its 80th anniversary under the concept of ‘Creating Value for a Sustainable Future’ which is a major policy to support the Bank’s growth via many projects.
As of March 15, 2025, Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited (BBL) has received the following analyst ratings:
Average Rating: Outperform
Number of Analysts: 23
Average Target Price: THB 174.23, suggesting a potential upside of approximately 18.93% from the current price of THB 146.50, the most bearish forecast implies potential share price decline of -13% from the current levels.
Highest and must bullish analyst Target Price: THB 196.00
Lowest Target Price and most bearish analyst rating: THB 125.00
Investing in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) or other Thai equities involves risks and should be undertaken with careful consideration. The Thai stock market is subject to economic, political, regulatory, and currency risks, which may lead to significant price fluctuations.
While there are many fundamentally attractive stocks available at attractive valuations, investors should take a long-term approach. Investors with enough savings should accumulate THAI value stocks for long-term investment as part of a global and globally diversified investment or retirement portfolio.
When it comes to investing in Thailand, like any country in the world, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and investors may experience losses, including the potential loss of principal. Factors such as market volatility, liquidity constraints, interest rate changes, and global economic conditions can impact investment returns.
Foreign investors in Thailand should also be aware of exchange rate risks related to the Thai baht (THB) and any restrictions on capital flows or foreign ownership. Additionally, tax implications and regulatory requirements may differ from those in other jurisdictions.
It is strongly recommended to conduct thorough research, seek advice from a licensed financial advisor, and diversify investments to mitigate investment risks. Always consider your holistic financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon and total wealth and current portfolio construction before making any investment decisions.
Rainer Michael Preiss, Partner & Portfolio Strategist at Das Family Office in Singapore
