If some of the many thousands of human volunteers needed to test coronavirus vaccines could have been replaced by digital replicas – one of this year’s Top 10 Emerging Technologies – COVID-19 vaccines might have been developed even faster, saving untold lives. Soon virtual clinical trials could be a reality for testing new vaccines and therapies. Other technologies on the list could reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by electrifying air travel and enabling sunlight to directly power the production of industrial chemicals.
These and the other emerging technologies have been singled out by an international steering group of experts. The group, convened by Scientific American and the World Economic Forum, sifted through more than 75 nominations. To win the nod, the technologies must have the potential to spur progress in societies and economies by outperforming established ways of doing things. They also need to be novel yet likely to have a major impact within the next three to five years.
Below are the top ten emerging technologies of 2020, published by the World Economic Forum that would place medicine, healthcare, transportation, infrastructure, and other industries on quite different levels of their development.
Microneedles for Painless Injections and Tests
Microneedles could enable painless injections and blood draws. Barely visible needles, or “microneedles,” are poised to usher in an era of pain-free injections and blood testing. Whether attached to a syringe or a patch, microneedles prevent pain by avoiding contact with nerve endings. Many microneedle syringes and patch applications are already available for administering vaccines and many more are in clinical trials for use in treating diabetes, cancer, and neuropathic pain. Because these devices insert drugs directly into the epidermis or dermis, they deliver medicines much more efficiently than familiar transdermal patches, which rely on diffusion through the skin. This year researchers debuted a novel technique for treating skin disorders such as psoriasis, warts, and certain types of cancer: mixing star-shaped microneedles into a therapeutic cream or gel. The needles’ temporary gentle perforation of the skin enhances the passage of the therapeutic agent.
Sun-Powered Chemistry
Visible light can drive processes that convert carbon dioxide into common materials. The manufacture of many chemicals important to human health and comfort consumes fossil fuels, thereby contributing to extractive processes, carbon dioxide emissions, and climate change. A new approach employs sunlight to convert waste carbon dioxide into these needed chemicals, potentially reducing emissions in two ways – by using the unwanted gas as raw material, and sunlight, not fossil fuels, as the source of energy needed for production.
Virtual Patients
Replacing humans with simulations could make clinical trials faster and safer. Every day, it seems, some new algorithm enables computers to diagnose a disease with unprecedented accuracy, renewing predictions that computers will soon replace doctors. What if computers could replace patients as well? These are some of the benefits of “in silico medicine”, or the testing of drugs and treatments on virtual organs or body systems to predict how a real person will respond to the therapies. For the foreseeable future, real patients will be needed in late-stage studies, but in silico trials will make it possible to conduct quick and inexpensive first assessments of safety and efficacy, drastically reducing the number of live human subjects required for experimentation.
Spatial Computing
The “spatial computing” at the heart of this scene is the next step in the ongoing convergence of the physical and digital worlds. It does everything a virtual reality and augmented reality apps do: digitize objects that connect via the cloud; allow sensors and motors to react to one another, and digitally represent the real world. Major companies, including Microsoft and Amazon, are heavily invested in technology.
Digital Medicine
Could the next prescription from your doctor be for an app? A raft of apps in use or under development can now detect or monitor mental and physical disorders autonomously or directly administer therapies. Collectively known as digital medicines, the software can both enhance traditional medical care and support patients when access to healthcare is limited – a need that the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated.
Electric Aviation
It enables air travel to decarbonize. In 2019, air travel accounted for 2.5% of global carbon emissions, a number that could triple by 2050. While some airlines have started offsetting their contributions to atmospheric carbon, significant cutbacks are still needed. Electric airplanes could provide the scale of transformation required and many companies are racing to develop them. Not only would electric propulsion motors eliminate direct carbon emissions, but they could also reduce fuel costs by up to 90%, maintenance by up to 50%, and noise by nearly 70%.
Lower-Carbon Cement
Construction material that combats climate change. A variety of lower-carbon approaches are being pursued, with some already in practice. Additionally, researchers have been incorporating bacteria into concrete formulations to absorb carbon dioxide from the air and to improve its properties.
Quantum Sensing
Quantum computers get all the hype, but quantum sensors could be equally transformative, enabling autonomous vehicles that can “see” around corners, underwater navigation systems, early-warning systems for volcanic activity and earthquakes, and portable scanners that monitor a person’s brain activity during daily life. Industry analysts expect quantum sensors to reach the market in the next three to five years, with an initial emphasis on medical and defense applications.
Green Hydrogen
When hydrogen burns, the only by-product is water – which is why hydrogen has been an alluring zero-carbon energy source for decades. Yet the traditional process for producing hydrogen, in which fossil fuels are exposed to steam, is not even remotely zero-carbon. Hydrogen produced this way is called grey hydrogen; if the CO2 is captured and sequestered, it is called blue hydrogen. Green hydrogen is different. It is produced through electrolysis, in which machines split water into hydrogen and oxygen, with no other by-products.
Whole-Genome Synthesis
Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists in China uploaded the virus’s genetic sequence (the blueprint for its production) to genetic databases. A Swiss group then synthesized the entire genome and produced the virus from it – essentially teleporting the virus into their laboratory for study without having to wait for physical samples. Such speed is one example of how whole-genome printing is advancing medicine and other endeavors.
