According to G&T Tourist arrivals reached 3.8mn in 9M18, exceeding the country’s population of 3.7mn. Tourism revenues grew by 20.0% y/y to US$ 2.6bn over the same period, and we expect the full-year figure to rise to US$ 3.2bn. Total international arrivals, which combine tourists and same-day visitors, rose by 12.9% y/y to 5.6mn. A 17.7% y/y (66.8% of the total, or 3.8mn persons) increase in tourist arrivals was the major driver of the growth in total arrivals as same-day arrivals increased by a modest 4.3% y/y. Russia was the largest contributor (+22.9% y/y, or 1.1mn visitors) to arrivals growth in 9M18. Among the traditional sources of visitors, arrivals increased strongly from Azerbaijan (+10.9% y/y) and Turkey (+17.2% y/y), while there was a slowdown from Iran and Armenia in 9M18. Notably, arrivals from Iran have been falling since June and intensified in September, dropping by 41.6% y/y in that month likely affected by US sanctions on Iran. Arrivals from the EU rose by 36.2% y/y to over 310,000 with Poland and Germany driving the growth. Among non-neighboring countries, there was also notable visitor growth from Israel, India, Saudi Arabia, the US and Kazakhstan. We expect 4.7mn tourists (up 19% y/y) in 2018, which incorporates further declines in visits from Iran and Turkey and growth from all other major markets - notes G&T
