The World Bank has revised down Georgia’s economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.5 percentage points to 5%, according to its June Global Economic Prospects report. At the same time, the institution lowered its global growth outlook, citing weaker international conditions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which are expected to reduce global growth by 0.2 percentage points. The report does not provide a specific explanation for the downgrade in Georgia’s case.
In contrast, several regional economies saw mixed revisions. Armenia’s growth forecast was raised to 5.3% (+0.4 p.p.), Azerbaijan’s to 2% (+0.2 p.p.), and Kazakhstan’s to 4.6% (+0.1 p.p.). Meanwhile, forecasts were cut for countries such as Moldova, Turkey, and Ukraine, reflecting uneven regional economic conditions. For Georgia’s neighbors, the adjustments highlight differing expectations despite broadly similar external pressures.
Georgia’s revised outlook comes amid a divergence in international forecasts. While the World Bank downgraded its projection, other institutions including the IMF, EBRD, ADB, and the Georgian government itself have recently upgraded their 2026 growth expectations, with some forecasts reaching up to 6.5%. This reflects stronger-than-expected recent performance and revised macroeconomic assumptions by several organizations.
Official data from Geostat shows Georgia’s economy grew by 8.3% in the first four months of 2026, which has been a key factor behind recent upward revisions by multiple institutions. However, the World Bank’s more cautious outlook suggests continued uncertainty in the global environment and highlights differing views among international organizations on the country’s medium-term growth trajectory.
