14.Oct .2020 10:00

5% CONTRACTION IN 2020; 5 % REBOUND IN 2021 – IMF PREDICTS FOR GEORGIA

5% CONTRACTION IN 2020; 5 % REBOUND IN 2021 – IMF PREDICTS FOR GEORGIA
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) renovated World Economic Outlook. According to the report, economic contraction of Georgia stands at 5% in 2020, while 5% rebound is predicted in 2021. IMF forecast is more optimistic for 2022, when economic growth will amount to 6%.

As of the current data, economic of Georgia is 5.6% down in 8 months of 2020. In order to meet the IMF forecast, the recession in the last quarter of the year should not be more than 4%.

However, government of Georgia expects economic rebound of 5% in 2021 and the draft budget of the next year is planned on that rate. It should be noted, that IMF’s forecast is more optimistic comparing to the WB, which expects economic rebound of 4% in 2021.

For comparison, the economic growth forecasts for the countries of the region are as follows:

Armenia - 4.5% contraction in 2020, 3.5% rebound in 2020;
Turkey - 5% contraction in 2020, 5% rebound in 2021;
Kazakhstan - 2.7% contraction in 2020, 3% rebound in 2021;
Ukraine - 7.2% contraction in 2020, 20% rebound in 2021;
Russia - 4.1% contraction in 2020, 2.8% rebound in 2021;
Belarus - 3% contraction in 2020, 2.2% rebound in 2021;
The EU - 7.2% contraction in 2020, 2.8% rebound in 2021;
Russia – 4.4% contraction in 2020, 5.2% rebound in 2021.
However, the IMF predicted recession of 4% in April 2020.