TBC Research published monthly update. According to the research, after a declining trend over the last year,the non-mortgage retail portfolio is showing signs of picking up.
With the impact of regulations gradually waning, monthly annualized growth,excluding seasonality, was around 5-6% in August and September.
Although annual growth rates still remain in negative territory (-3.6% YoY in September, excluding the FX effect), this should reverse in coming months and strengthen further in 2020 to around 5-6%, assuming existing consumer lending regulations are not revised.
Despite tighter monetary policy, this segment should not be affected much because interest rate sensitivity in relatively short-term, high-yield loans is arguably weaker. The higher growth of the non-mortgage portfolio should support bank margins, being under pressures due to the introduced regulations and intense competition.