The Armenian State Revenue Committee has published data showing an increase in tax revenues for the first half of 2024. However, experts find this data problematic as it does not include the shortfall amount compared to the expected tax revenue for the current year.
According to the State Revenue Committee, tax and customs authorities collected a total of 1.3498 trillion drams ($3.4 billion) during this period, of which 162.2 billion drams (approximately $417 million) were refunded to taxpayers and individuals.
As a result, the net tax revenue and state duties amounted to 1.1876 trillion drams (over $3 billion), which is 84.1 billion drams (over $210 million) or 7.6% more compared to the same period last year.
Tax authorities collected 1.1632 trillion drams (over $2.9 billion), which is 133.4 billion drams or 13.0% more than in the first half of 2023. At the same time, customs authorities collected 186.6 billion drams (over $479 million), which is 62.9 billion drams (over $161 million) or 25.2% less than in the same period last year. The decrease in customs revenue is attributed to a reduction in the import volumes of various goods.
Haykaz Fanyan, head of the analytical center ACSES and an economist, expressed concern that the published data does not indicate the shortfall amount compared to the planned tax revenue for the current year. He believes that the State Revenue Committee deliberately focuses on absolute figures, omitting how much actual collections fall short of the target.
"In communications and politics, this phenomenon is called spin – when facts are interpreted in a biased manner to create a positive public opinion. The reality is that this year's budget revenues are not being met properly, leading to negative consequences," Fanyan said in an interview with BMG.
Earlier, Armenian Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan stated that despite high economic growth, the country faces the risk of not meeting tax revenue targets in 2024. He predicted a shortfall of over 100 billion drams (more than $250 million).
BMG reminds that Armenia's state budget revenues for 2024 are planned at 2.7 trillion drams (over $6.9 billion), which will account for 24.9% of GDP. Meanwhile, expenditures will amount to 3.2 trillion drams (over $8.2 billion). The budget deficit will increase by approximately 142 billion drams (over $364 million) compared to the initial draft and will total around 483 billion drams (over $1.2 billion), or 4.6% of GDP.
