The Armenian government is considering a large-scale demographic strategy for 2024-2040, developed in collaboration with world-class independent experts.
The project, requiring a $6.5 billion investment, promises an economic return of $44 billion over two decades.
Tigran Jrbashyan, head of the consulting firm Ameria, which is leading the strategy’s development, emphasized the plan’s uniqueness and level of detail for the region in an interview with CivilNet.
According to the authors, the current birth rate in Armenia does not ensure even basic population replacement, which requires a fertility rate of 2.1 children per family. However, simply achieving basic replacement (2-3 children per family) is not sufficient for ensuring expanded reproduction or a significant increase in birth rates.
Projections indicate that Armenia’s total population will decrease. By 2050, it may fall from the current 3 million to 2.59 million under an optimistic scenario, or 2.06 million under a pessimistic one.
The implementation of the strategy is expected to help reduce the rate of population aging by 20% by 2040 compared to the inertia-based forecast, promoting a more balanced age distribution.
